US-Iran truce, lower crude to drive market; Medanta, GMR Airport, Mankind- midcaps to buy

India's markets have navigated one of the most geopolitically volatile quarters in recent memory. Market experts believe that the signing of the US-Iran deal and crude trading near $70-$80 a barrel are favourable for India as they could ease inflation, support the rupee, reduce the import bill, and aid rate-sensitive and oil-consuming sectors.

They warned that the main risk to this outlook is any breakdown in the peace deal or fresh disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. That could push crude higher again, revive inflation and rate-hike concerns, and reverse gains in rate-sensitive and oil-consumer sectors.

This was a quarter where geopolitics, not fundamentals, drove the oil market and, by extension, Indian equities. The round trip in crude from $102 to $115 and back to $82 shows just how sensitive inflation, rate expectations and rural-linked sectors remain to developments around the Strait of Hormuz, said Narender Singh, smallcase manager and Founder & CEO at Growth Investing.

"With a peace deal now on the table, the focus for Q2FY27 shifts to whether crude can sustainably settle in the $70-$80 range, which would meaningfully ease the inflation and growth concerns the RBI flagged this quarter, he added.

Commenting on the midcap space, Emkay Global Financial Services said the Nifty Midcap 100 has entered a fresh structural uptrend after breaking above its previous cycle high. According to Emkay, the index enters a bullish zone once it moves above an earlier peak or registers a range breakout.

Its historical analysis suggests such moves are typically followed by 20-24 months of sustained outperformance, and the current uptrend could extend till 4QCY27, or October-December 2027. It said the broader market is showing improving participation, indicating that the ongoing rally is not confined to a select group of stocks.

Growth Investing said its near-term playbook depends on crude prices and whether the peace deal holds. If crude stays lower, financials, realty and autos could benefit as softer inflation may keep the RBI from hiking rates. OMCs, aviation, paints and tyres may also see margin relief as fuel and input costs decline.

Emkay said intermediate corrections should be treated as accumulation opportunities, while the long-term bullish structure remains intact above 59,000. Emkay also said market leadership is broadening, with leadership gradually shifting towards economically sensitive sectors amid improving risk appetite and expectations of a stronger earnings cycle.

The brokerage listed its preferred themes as capital goods, industrials, metals and mining, electrical equipment, telecom, infrastructure and capital markets. Emkay added that momentum rankings point to increasing participation from healthcare, banks, defence and consumer durables, which it said reinforces the bullish undertone across the broader market.

Emkay said the combination of a structural breakout in the Nifty Midcap 100, improving market breadth and strengthening sectoral momentum suggests that the next phase of market leadership could emerge from the midcap universe.  Investors must continue to accumulate quality businesses on declines and position portfolios for a potential multi-quarter phase of midcap outperformance.

Among its top midcap picks, Emkay has picked Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd with a target price of Rs 4,850 and a stop loss of Rs 3,500; GMR Airports Ltd with a target price of Rs 130 and a stop loss of Rs 97; Global Health Ltd (Medanta) with a target price of Rs 1,450 and a stop loss of Rs 1,175; and Mandkind Pharma Ltd with a target price of Rs 2,900 and a stop loss of Rs 2,350.