Waaree, Vikram Solar, Premier Energies: Check latest price target, Q4 preview & more

Indian solar stocks has been drawing brokerage attentions lately as JM Financial has initiated coverage on stocks like Waaree Energies Ltd, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power Ltd, Premier Energies Ltd and Vikram Solar Ltd, while Kotak has shares its Q4 expectations, ratings and targets for the renewable energy player, barring the last one.

India possesses one of the world’s richest solar resources, with average solar irradiance ranging from 3.5 to 5.5 kWh/m²/day and 300 to 330 sunny days annually. The government has implemented policies to boost solar capacity from 2.8GW in 2014 to a target of 100GW by 2025, according to a report by JM Financial.

India's solar capacity additions have seen significant growth in the current fiscal year, with 38 GW installed in the first eleven months, according to a report by Kotak Institutional Equities. This progress positions the country to surpass 40 GW by the end of FY2026.

Despite this ambitious target, JM Financial highlights challenges such as intermittency and demand-supply mismatches. They forecast solar capacity additions of 130–140GW during FY27–30, compared to 40–45GW in FY26, resulting in an annual modules requirement of 45–50GW up to 2030.

The report notes that module manufacturing in India is crowded, with over 100 players and 170GW capacity. JM Financial expects a shift in policy focus from quantity to quality, predicting that 40 per cent of current capacity will become obsolete due to technology transitions towards TOPCon and higher efficiency modules.

Kotak highlighted that demand for solar energy remains strong, although a slowdown in renewable energy awarding could pose challenges for equipment manufacturers. Solar pricing increased sharply by 6-7 per cent early in the quarter, driven by rising raw material costs, which may limit margin improvements.

India's solar capacity additions for the year-to-date period have already surpassed the previous record of 23.8 GW set in FY2025. Kotak expects the total additions to exceed 40 GW by the fiscal year's close. Manufacturing capacity is in pace with installation growth. Domestic cell capacity has reached 32 GW, indicating potential supply-demand balance for solar cells by FY27 or early FY28.

JM Financial categorises the Indian solar industry into three groups: large integrated players like Waaree Energies and Premier Energies; technologically advanced domestic companies such as Emmvee Photovoltaics; and policy-dependent assemblers reliant on import duties and ALMM protection.

The report outlines a three-phase transition for Indian solar manufacturing: volume growth until FY26, margin expansion through integration between FY27 and FY29, and a platform play involving battery energy storage systems (BESS) and other adjacencies from FY30 onwards. JM Financial draws parallels with Chinese manufacturers, who experienced similar phases before achieving global dominance.

JM Financial initiates coverage on four key companies. Waaree Energies, India’s largest module manufacturer, plans capacity expansions and diversification into electrolyser, BESS, and other segments. The report projects its revenue, EBITDA, and PAT to compound annually by 34 per cent, 42 per cent, and 40 per cent respectively through FY26–28, but recommends a 'reduce' rating with a target price of Rs 2,815 due to diversification execution risks.

Premier Energies is expanding its TOPCon cell and ingot-wafer capacities, aiming for deeper integration and a strong order book of Rs 13,700 crore. JM Financial assigns it a 'reduce' rating with a target price of Rs 865, reflecting a 10 per cent downside potential.

Emmvee Photovoltaics, noted for its technology leadership and ALMM listing, is expected to grow Ebitda at 60 per cent CAGR and normalise RoE to 29 per cent by FY28. JM Financial initiates coverage with a 'buy' rating and a target price of Rs 291. Vikram Solar, despite early entry, lags in technology and integration, facing a stock correction of 48 per cent since listing. JM Financial values it at 5 times FY28 EV/EBITDA with an 'add' rating and a target price of Rs 202.

Production data from the Domestic Content Requirement (DCR) shows that Premier and Waaree have ramped up output this quarter. Kotak adjusted its EPS estimates for Waaree by 2-4 per cent for FY2026-28, raising its fair value (FV) to Rs 2,890. Premier's EPS estimates increased by 3-8 per cent, with FV revised to Rs 790. Estimates for Emmvee remain steady, with a FV of Rs 250. Kotak has a 'reduce' rating on Waaree and premier, while an 'add' rating on Emmvee.