Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty down 376 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equities are poised for a sharply weaker open on Monday, mirroring a broad risk-off move across Asia as escalating US-Iran tensions kept oil prices elevated and deepened concerns ​over growth and earnings outlook. The selloff reflects a rapid increase in risk aversion.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 365.60 points, or 1.58 per cent, up at 22,764, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian shares slid on Monday as the US and Iran traded escalating threats and Israel planned for 'weeks' more fighting. KOSPI cracked more than 5 per cent, while Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped nearly 3 per cent each.

Wall Street shares ended sharply lower on Friday as the US-Israeli war against Iran entered the fourth ​week, deepening worries on inflation and the potential for higher interest rates. The S&P 500 declined 1.51 per cent ​to end the session at 6,506.48 points. The Nasdaq slumped 2.01 per cent to 21,647.61 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.96 per cent to 45,577.47 points.

Oil prices were again choppy with early gains quickly fizzling out, leaving Brent down 0.2 per cent at $111.90 a barrel, but still up 55 per cent ​on the month so far. US crude was near flat at $98.35. In other commodity markets, gold ​was 0.4 per cent firmer at $4,511 an ounce , having lost ground last week as investors wager on higher interest rates globally.

The dollar was poised for a rebound on Monday as retaliatory threats escalated in the Middle East crisis, damping risk sentiment and boosting demand for haven assets. The dollar index rose 0.03 per cent to 99.53. The Indian rupee and government bonds shall remain under pressure from elevated oil prices and energy supply woes as the Middle East war enters its fourth week.

Given the fragile sentiment, persistent FII outflows, and ongoing global uncertainties, investors should maintain a cautious and selective approach, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Traders should remain nimble, avoid aggressive leverage and adhere to disciplined risk management practices and maintain a hedged approach with a focus on stock selection."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 5,518.39 crore on Friday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 5,706.23 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs have withdrawn Rs 88,180 crore from Indian equities so far in March 2026.

The complete negative stance of the FPIs towards India is evident from the fact that they are selling recklessly without regard for valuations, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "A reversal of the FPI selling will happen only when the war ends and normalcy returns to the market."
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

NIfty50 has declined nearly 13 per cent from its all-time high, underscoring a significant corrective phase in the broader market. From a momentum standpoint, the weekly RSI stands at 30.22, reflecting near-oversold conditions and weak underlying momentum, said Choice Broking.

"23,850 remains the immediate resistance, from technical perspective, followed by 24,000 and 24,150. On the downside, 22,950 and 22,700 serve as crucial support levels, with a break below 22,700 potentially triggering accelerated downside movement," it added. "Traders are advised to stay cautious and adhere to strict risk management practices amid the prevailing volatility."

Nifty50 has breached its critical support levels and remains under pressure below its 200-day EMA, signaling a continued bearish bias in short-term momentum, said Dr Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer at Master Capital Services.

"For the coming week, the 22,930 swing low stands as the make-or-break level; a breakdown here could drag prices toward the 22,500 area. On the upside, 23,350 and 23,600 now act as stiff hurdles. Strategy remains 'sell on rise' until the index decisively reclaims 23,600 level. Expect continued volatility as the market searches for a stable bottom," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank formed a high-wave candle with a lower high and lower low on the weekly charts, signaling continuation of the corrective decline. Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, driven by uncertain global cues and rising geopolitical tensions, which continue to weigh on market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"A sustained move below 53,240 could trigger further downside, with potential targets at 52,500 and 51,800 in the coming sessions. On the upside, the Thursday gap zone between 54,689 and 54,150 is expected to act as immediate resistance. The overall bias remains bearish as long as the index stays below this zone," it added.

Nifty Bank formed of a thin-bodied candle with a prominent upper shadow, reflecting selling pressure on every rise. The immediate support is placed in the 53,100–53,000 zone, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 52,700, followed by 52,400 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 53,900–54,000 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance."