Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 21 pts; levels to watch for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Indian equity benchmark indices are poised to open little changed on Tuesday after falling for seven straight sessions, hurt by steep US tariffs and a hike in the H-1B visa fee, while caution prevails ahead of the central bank's rate decision on Wednesday. Traders will be cautious of F&O expiry later today.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange traded 20.50 points, or 0.08 per cent, down at 24,705.50, hinting at a muted start for the domestic market on Tuesday. Shares in Asia edged mixed and gold continued its record climb on Tuesday. Nikkei and Hang Seng dropped 0.2 per cent, while KOSPI rose 0.15 per cent on Tuesday.

Volatility looms with September F&O expiry and headwinds from Trump’s tariffs, visa fee, pharma levy, persistent FII selling and RBI policy outcome, said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP of Research at Mehta Equities. RBI is likely to hold rates, through 2025, while US payrolls data is due Friday, he said.

Wall Street indexes closed up on Monday as traders shrugged off the uncertainty of a potential US government shutdown. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 68.78 points, or 0.15 per cent, to 46,316.07, the S&P 500 gained 17.51 points, or 0.26 per cent, to 6,661.21 and the Nasdaq Composite added 107.09 points, or 0.48 per cent, to 22,591.15.

The economic and trade uncertainty was a tailwind for gold , which reached an all-time high $3,843.49. Oil remained weaker due to an anticipated production increase by OPEC+ and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region. US crude dipped 0.6 per cent to $63.07 a barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.6 per cent to $67.51 per barrel.

The US dollar was on the back foot on Tuesday in cautious trading as investors braced for a possible US government shutdown that would halt economic data releases including the crucial jobs report later this week. The US currency index has dropped 9.7 per cent this year, easing a bit to 97.948 in early Asian hours.

On one hand, the overhang of recent US policy actions has eased slightly; however, persistent foreign fund outflows and caution ahead of the MPC meeting continue to weigh on sentiment, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "Participants should focus on selective stock opportunities aligned with sectoral trends while keeping position sizes under check."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,831.59 crore on Monday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 3,845.87 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty & Sensex outlook
"We are of the view that the short-term market outlook is weak, but since it is oversold, a strong possibility of a quick pullback rally cannot be ruled out. For day traders, 24,800/80,800 would act as an immediate resistance zone," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"If the market successfully clears this zone, it could bounce back up to 24,900-24925/81,000-81,300. On the other side, below 24,600/80,300, the selling pressure is likely to accelerate. Below this level, it could retest the levels of 24,500–24,450/80,000-79,800," it added.

The setup suggests that the index may remain under pressure unless there is a decisive reversal supported by volume and breadth. Talking about crucial levels, the zone of 24,530-24,500 will act as crucial support for the index, as the upward-sloping trendline is placed in that region, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Any sustainable move below the level of 24,500 will lead to further correction upto the 200-day EMA zone, which is currently placed in the zone of 24,400-24,370 level. While, on the upside, the zone of 24760-24800 will act as a crucial hurdle for the index," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook
From a technical perspective, Nifty Bank formed a Doji candle near trend line support, reflecting indecisiveness. The low of the Doji candle is placed at 54,225; if the index manages to defend this level, a pullback move could be expected, said Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivative Research, Asit C. Mehta Investment Interrmediates. "However, a breach below 54,225 may trigger further downside towards the next major support at 53,790, where the 200-DEMA is positioned," he said.

Nifty Bank is trading below its 21- and 50-day EMAs, signaling that short-term momentum remains weak. Immediate support is seen at 54,080, followed by 53,800, which also aligns closely with the 200-day EMA, making this zone a critical demand area. A strong bounce from these levels could provide a short-term relief rally, said Bajaj Broking.

"On the upside, resistance is placed at 54,850, followed by 55,000, which represents key supply zones where selling pressure could re-emerge. A sustained breakout above 55,000 would be required to signal a potential near-term trend reversal and shift the short-term bias back in favor of the bulls. Overall, the technical setup suggests a market in a corrective phase," it added.