Silver surged 98%, but investors made just 18%: How FOMO turned a rally into a trap

Silver delivered a 98% return over the one-year period through July 2026, but the average investor in silver ETFs earned only 18%, highlighting how chasing a sharply rising asset can leave investors with returns far below what the market itself delivered. The DSP Netra September 2026 report says the bigger risk of FOMO is not necessarily buying the wrong asset, but buying the right asset after much of its return has already occurred.

Silver's record inflows came at the peak

According to the report, investor demand for silver became increasingly pro-cyclical as prices climbed. Instead of attracting money when prices were lower, the asset drew increasingly large inflows as its rally gathered pace.

The clearest example came in January 2026, when silver ETFs recorded ₹11,761 crore of inflows in a single month, the biggest monthly inflow on record. Crucially, this money arrived at the monthly price peak. The report notes that the January inflow was equivalent to the cumulative inflows received between September 2024 and August 2025, a period when silver prices were below ₹1.41 lakh.

Market return and investor return diverged sharply

The pattern illustrates the behavioural challenge facing investors during strong rallies. Rising prices can create the expectation that recent performance will continue, encouraging investors to increase their exposure after substantial gains have already taken place.

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DSP's analysis shows how this can affect actual investor outcomes. While silver's market return was 98% over the one-year period, the money-weighted return for the average investor was just 18%. Money-weighted returns account for when investors actually put their money into the asset, making them more reflective of the experience of investors than the headline market return.

Source: DSP Netra, September 2026

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The damage was not limited to lower-than-market returns. The report found that 56% of the money invested in silver ETFs during the preceding 12 months was sitting on a loss as of July 31, 2026. This means that despite silver's powerful overall rally, more than half of the capital that entered through the period was underwater at the end of the analysis period.

FOMO can turn past returns into future expectations

The report's broader message is that investors often confuse an asset's past return with the return available from its current price. “FOMO converts past returns into future expectations,” DSP says, while stressing that the price paid ultimately determines the return earned.

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The silver episode, therefore, serves as an illustration of how investor behaviour can undermine investment outcomes. An asset can continue to be fundamentally attractive while the timing of an investor's entry makes a substantial difference to the returns actually captured.

As DSP puts it, “The bigger risk is that FOMO makes them buy the right asset after most of the return has already happened.”