Sensex, Nifty Highlights on Union Budget 2021:In a historical move, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed 5% higher on Monday, as market participants reacted positively to the announcements by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Union Budget 2021. BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, ended 2,314 points higher at 48,600 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 646 points to 14,281. This was once in a life time jump seen on Budget day, with Sensex and Nifty rising over 5% each. Almost all the sectors were trading in green territory today, rising in the range of 3-6%. Gains in banking, real estate and financial stocks, were capped by losses in IT and pharma stocks. Last Friday, S&P BSE Sensex, tumbled 588.59 points or 1.26% to 46,285.77. The Nifty 50 index lost 182.95 points or 1.32% to 13,634.60. With no major boost for industry, budget 2020 had failed to cheer the Dalal street as the market witnessed its biggest fall on February 1 since 2009. On last year's budget announcement, Sensex had crashed 2.43% and closed right below 40K, as investors lost around Rs 3.6 lakh crore of wealth on BSE.
Check all the updates of the market action on Union Budget day
4.00 PM: Closing session
In a historical move, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed 5% higher on Monday, as market participants reacted positively to the announcements by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Union Budget 2021. BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, ended 2,314 points higher at 48,600 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 646 points to 14,281. Almost all the sectors closed in green territory today, rising in the range of 3-6%, except for pharma index
3. 54PM: Expert outlook on Budget
V.P. Nandakumar, MD & CEO, Manappuram Finance said,"A progressive and growth-oriented budget presented under difficult circumstances that has also given serious consideration to some of the persistent problems of the banking and financial services sector. We are pleased that the FM has reduced the eligible loan amount for recovery under the SARFAESI Act for NBFCs. It will help in strengthening the NBFC sector by improving credit discipline among borrowers. The one concern we have is about the elevated fiscal deficit and its potential inflationary impact. Going forward, the onus will be on the government to ensure that the deficit levels are progressively brought down in tune with its projections."
3. 50 PM: Banking stocks on fire
Banking stocks led the charge on Dalal Street after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented her third consecutive Budget today. The surge in banking stocks came after FM Sitharaman said government would set up an asset reconstruction company to take over toxic assets.
Bank Nifty rose 2,484 points intra day to 33,049 against previous close of 30,565.
BSE bankex too surged 2,544 points intra day to 37,206 against previous close of 34,662.
3. 34PM: Bank Nifty at all time high
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives - Angel Broking said,"BANKNIFTY has been bucking the trend since last couple of sessions, while the broader market was correcting brutally. This outperformance has now turned into a leadership and hence, staying beyond 33000, unfolds fresh leg of the rally for the banking index. Above this, next levels to watch would be 34500 - 35000.
3. 25 PM: Budget impact on Agri Sector
Sugandha Sachdeva, VP - Metals, Research & Energy, Religare Broking said,"The 2021-2022 Budget is indeed a bold one, that aims for a big push towards growth and investment in various sectors including Agriculture. The focus shall remain on doubling farmers income i.e. doubling farmers' income by 2022-23 and becoming a USD 5 trillion economy by 2024-25. A lot of constructive government policies had already been implemented in 2020 and it was a clear message that further policy related implementations shall be done in line with the welfare of the Agriculture sector and farming community. The government has proposed fertilizer subsidy of Rs of 80000 crores versus FY21 subsidy of Rs 134793."
3. 16 PM: Market outlook post Budget
Jimeet Modi, Founder & CEO Samco Group said,"Markets heaved a sigh of relief in absence of any major change in personal or corporate taxes and therefore reacted positively. The principal theme of Budget 2021 was definitely a capex and infra led budget which is positive for cement, heavy industries, insurance, PSUs and private sector banks who came out as prominent beneficiaries while autos and domestic electronics manufacturers prima facie appear to be at the back foot.
2. 53PM: ICICI Bank shares hit 52-week intraday
Shares of ICICI Bank surged over 12 per cent to hit 52-week high of Rs 602 on the Bombay Stock Exchange on Monday after the private sector lender reported strong earnings for the third quarter ended December 31, 2020. The stock breached its previous high of Rs 561, touched on January 13, 2021.
Early today, ICICI Bank share price opened higher at 550.20 against previous closing price of Rs 537. During the day's trade, the stock rose as much as 12.2 per cent to hit record high of Rs 602 apiece. On the volume front, there was surge in buying as 124.20 lakh shares changed hands over the counter as compared to two-week average volume of 21.47 lakh shares. The market cap of the company surged to 4,11,579 crore.
2. 44PM Market rises further
BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, traded 2,300 points higher at 48,588 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 650 points to 14,285.
2. 43 PM: Views on Budget 2021
Devang Mehta, Head Equity Advisory, Centrum Broking said,"This is surely an expansionary budget with a vision to spur capex, infrastructure & healthcare spending. The way forward for divestments, privatization & asset monetization looks promising. Going with a sharp correction into the budget, the street was enthused by the absence of negatives and an attempt to be focused on robust growth for key sectors & in turn boost economic growth. The market cheer was also led by an underlying pessimism on raising tax rates or taxing the super rich, which was prevailing in the market in the last couple of weeks, which did not materialize & was a pleasant surprise."
2. 40 PM: No change in tax slabs, PPF limit, Sec 80C exemption
Going against the expectations of salaried class, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman did not announce any major alteration in personal taxation in Budget 2021 . There were no changes in income tax slabs, PPF limit, Section 80C exemption. This comes despite experts asking for increased money in the hands of the salaried class to boost consumption.
2.30PM: Top gainers and losers
On the Sensex chart, IndusInd Bank was the top gainer, followed by ICICI Bank, SBI, HDFC, M&M and Axis Bank. On the other hand, Dr Reddy's, Tech Mahindra and TCS were among the laggards
2. 23PM: Budget impact on market
Sameet Chavan-Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel Broking said,"Market has given complete thumbs up to this mega event has recovered fair bit of ground. Banking has been the major charioteer in this move. For Nifty 14200 is the level to watch on a closing basis. If manages to surpass, we may see it heading higher. However, a close below 14000 will not bode well for the bulls."
2. 15 PM: Market rises further
BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, traded 1,850 points higher at 48,144 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 495 points to 14,130.
2. 12 PM: LIC IPO to be rolled out in FY22
Presenting her third Union Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that the government will roll out the IPO for Life Insurance Corporation of India in the next financial year.
"In 2021-22 we would also bring the IPO of LIC for which I am bringing the requisite amendments in this Session itself," the Finance Minister said in her Budget speech on Monday.
Announcing the Union Budget 2021-22, the Finance Minister also increased FDI in insurance sector to 74 per centfrom 49 per cent.
2.05 PM: Post Budget reaction
S Ranganathan, Head of Research at LKP Securities said,"A Pragmatic Budget which delivered on many parameters without resorting to higher taxes. The Budget seeks to kickstart growth through higher spends on Infrastructure, Healthcare & Rural India with special focus on MSME and Start-Ups as India's demographic profile is now making Tier-2 & Tier-3 cities the new engine of growth. Relaxation in Tax compliance burden for Senior Citizens, reducing timelines for re-opening of Tax returns including faceless electronic communication with Tax Authorities is heartening news. As the Budget is Growth Focussed, several sectors of the Economy benefits and Investors should focus on companies that are growing rather than MCAP."
1. 57 PM: 2021 Budget reaction
Kanika Agarrwal, Chief Investment Officer, Upside AI said," The theme of the budget this time can be summarized in three words: infrastructure, disinvestment and capitalization. The overhaul of redundant customs duty structure, GST simplification, higher FDI in insurance, stronger NCLT, single Securities Markets Code and making tax assessments easier are all encouraging signs.
Further, it has committed a larger outlay (albeit still only 2.5% of GDP terms) on infrastructure spending across rail and rural. We hope this will get employment back up as the country looks to fill the hole in the economy left behind by COVID. Disinvesting/ privatizing PSUs and insurance companies is the correct move. While the intention to privatize and disinvest has been there nearly every budget, given the difficulty the government has had with this target in the past, we remain cautious on how the centre will balance its books and manage the committed deficit."
1. 43 PM: Market update
Intraday, Sensex has surged 2,096 points to hit day's high at 48,381. Similarly, Nifty has risen 580 points to hit intraday high of 14,214. Almost all the sectors were trading in green territory today, rising in the range of 3-6%
1. 30 PM: Sensex surges over 2,000 pts, Nifty breaches 14000
Indian stock market gave thumbs up to Union Budget 2021, with BSE benchmark Sensex rising over 2,000 points in intraday trade and NSE Nifty breaching 14,000 levels. The market rally was driven by gains in banking, financial and auto stocks, however, losses in IT and pharma stocks capped upmove.
The investors cheered the Budget proposal to raise foreign direct investment (FDI) limit in insurance from 49 per cent to 74 per cent, scrappage policy for auto stocks, as well as privatisation of two nationalised banks and proposal of monetisation of assets like land. Absence of the much-feared COVID tax and the surcharges on Income Tax also boosted market sentiment.
1. 28 PM: Market view post Budget announcemnet
Deepthi Mathew, Economist at Geojit Financial Services said," Budget called for increased government spending to revive the economy. There was an infrastructure push in the budget, focussing on development finance institution and asset monetization to fund the infra projects. Privatization of PSBs was another bold announcement. Positively, there wasn't any increase in taxes, even when the fiscal deficit figures are projected at a higher range"
1. 17 PM: Budget 2021 outlook and view
Harry Parikh, Associate Partner - Transaction Tax, BDO India said,"The FM has made a bold attempt by creating a Hexa pillar Budget to boost India Inc. in the pandemic hit economy. Targeted measures in the healthcare space should act as necessary inoculation for India's young workforce. Investment in the infrastructure sector, reducing regulatory forbearance, consolidation of regulations, implementing digitisation in several sectors should act as catalysts in improving India's rank in Ease of Doing Business.
1. 14PM: Budget and market reaction
Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services ssaid,"This is indeed a bold growth-oriented budget. Absence of the much-feared Covid tax and the surcharges on Income Tax is a great relief. Privatization of 2 nationalised banks and proposal of monetization of assets like land are clear positives. Raising FDI in insurance from 49% to 74% is welcome. Market response to the budget reflects growth optimism. In brief, the FM has presented a pragmatic, bold and visionary budget in these difficult times"
1.00 PM: Markets gives once in a lifetime reacction on Budget day
BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, traded 1,450 points higher at 47,746 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 405 points to 14,040. This was once in a life time jump seen on Budget day, with Sensex and Nifty rising over 3% each. Almost all the sectors were trading in green territory today, rising in the range of 2-3%.
12. 47 PM: Budget 2021 announcment outlook
Suraj Malik, Partner - Transaction Tax, BDO India said," Simplified regime for one-person company will encourage start-ups and entrepreneurs to do business under a corporate structure in an organised and structured manner that can help them to scale and grow."
He added," An Institutional framework to buy investment grade corporate bonds along with new AMC to take up stressed debt from banks together would help in bringing in liquidity to debt markets and facilitate faster debt resolution for stressed assets.
Nitesh Mehta, Partner - Transaction Tax, BDO India said," Decriminalisation of offences under LLP regulations and enhancing thresholds and criteria for small company and one person company is yet another step by the government to improve ease of doing business in India."
12. 45 PM: Quote on Health & Well Being sector allocation in Budget
Likhita Chepa, Senior Research Analyst at CapitalVia Global Research said," Health & well space was allocated an amount of 2,23,846 cr as against 94,452 cr in 2020 which is a 137 percent jump. The pandemic has thrown spotlight on this sector. The FM has proposed to set up 15 emergency health centers. India already has 2 vaccines available. Expectation of 2 or more vaccines ahead is expected to add comfort. The PM Atmanirbhar Swasth Bharat Yojana will support 17,000 rural and 11,000 urban health missions. The need for infrastructure development has also been addressed and an outlay of 64,180 crore has been provided over 6 years. The substantial increase in investment would strengthen institutions and improve existing conditions for the better. This increased allocation and push from the government would enable India to emerge as a global leader on both R&D and infrastructure front."
12. 41 PM: Govt proposes to launch securities market code, says FM
The government on Monday proposed to launch a unified securities market code.
The securities market code will include the Sebi Act, Depositories Act and Government Securities Act, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said while presenting the Budget for 2021-22 in Parliament.
In addition, the capital markets watchdog, Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi), will be notified as regulator for a gold exchange, she added.
Towards investor protection, the Finance Minister proposed to introduce an investor charter as a right for investors in all financial products.
12. 40 PM: PSU Bank rise over 5% on divestment
Shares of public sector bank rose up to 3 per cent after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her Budget 2021 speech, proposed divestment and bank recapitalisation plan to boost banking sector. Shares of central Bank of India rose over 5 per cent, followed by SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, among others. The Nifty PSU Bank index was up about 3 per cent.
12. 34 PM: India 2021 Budget outlook
Suraj Malik, Partner - Transaction Tax, BDO India said,"Consolidation of several securities laws into a single code will provide certainty and stability to deepen and strengthen Indian capital and debt markets
Nitesh Mehta, Partner - Transaction Tax, BDO India added," The proposal to have Stressed Asset Resolution ARC and Management Company can reduce the stress on the banks and can be a game changer. One will have to wait to see how effective this proposal will be."
12. 30 PM: Infrastructure outlook from Budget announcement
Mahesh Singhi, Founder & MD, Singhi Advisors said,"Even as the government navigates the tightrope of balancing economic growth and addressing fiscal concerns, a hike in infrastructure spending by FM Nirmala Sitharaman in budget 2021 holds the potential to propel the Indian economy on a high growth trajectory. Provisioning an outlay of Rs 1.18 lakh crore for the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways to bolster road infrastructure and build additional economic corridors will lead to large-scale employment generation, facilitate much-needed connectivity and mobility between different states of the country and optimize freight transportation costs. The proposal to enable entry of FPIs into debt financing of InvITs will boost global and domestic investor sentiments in the country's infrastructure sector and open new funding avenues for the sector. The move holds the potential to position India as a dominant player in the global infrastructure segment."
12. 30 PM: Key highlights from Budget
-FY22 Fiscal Deficit pegged at 6.8% of GDP. Fiscal Deficit will reach below 4.5% by FY26 and hope to get to back to fiscal consolidation path by FY26
-FM proposes record sum of Rs 1,10,055 crore for Railways of which Rs 1,07,100 crores is for capital expenditure
-Govt to infuse Rs 20,000 crore into public sector banks in 2021-22
-FM says NITI Aayog to be asked to work on next list of CPSEs for disinvestment
12. 27 PM: Market update
BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, traded 750 points higher at 47,026 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 180 points to 13,825.
12.23 PM: Nine of 10 most valued firms take over Rs 3.96 lakh cr hit in m-cap
The combined market valuation of nine of the top 10 valued domestic companies eroded by a whopping Rs 3,96,629.40 crore last week in tandem with a weak broader market, where Reliance Industries Limited NSE -1.84 % took the biggest hit.
In the last week, the 30-share BSE benchmark tumbled 2,592.77 points or 5.30 per cent due to profit-booking ahead of the Union Budget.
Only ICICI Bank managed to witness addition in its market valuation the holiday-truncated last week. Its valuation rose by Rs 2,397.43 crore to Rs 3,70,773.35 crore.
12. 15PM: Insurance stocks gain
Shares of insurance stocks surged after Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in her Budget 2021 speech in the Parliament, announced hike in foreign direct investment (FDI) limit in the sector to attract more foreign funds. The FDI limit for insurance sector has been raised to 74 per cent.
12. 11PM: Asian shares surge
Asian stock markets gained Monday after coronavirus vaccine maker AstraZeneca agreed to increase supplies to Europe amid rising worries about the disease.
Tokyo, Hong Kong and Seoul advanced. Shanghai declined after surveys showed Chinese manufacturing weakened in January.
On Friday, Wall Street's benchmark S&P 500 index lost 1.9% after GameStop, a video game vendor, and some other shares that were expected to decline were sent soaring by day traders. Other investors said hedge funds that bet against those stocks were losing money and selling other shares.
12. 07 PM:Budget 2021 outlook and view
Expressing views on the Budget 2021, Manoj Purohit, Partner and Leader- Financial Services Tax, BDO India said," To ease access of finance and augment funds for the infra sector, the proposal of providing FPIs an entry into debt financing of REITs and InvITs will open up a large source of fresh funding for the infrastructure and real estate sectors. This will also open up a new avenue for FPIs to invest in a growing market like India. Increase in FDI limits from 49% to 74 % for the insurance sector is a welcome step and will help insurance companies to raise funds to ensure their solvency is maintained in line with growing business needs. This will also augment foreign inflows and help attract more foreign companies."
12. 05 PM: Budget outlook
Suraj Malik, Partner - Transaction Tax, BDO India said,"Budget Tablet with focus on six key pillars appears to be a well targeted booster dose pill for stimulating the economy. The current buoyancy in capital markets provides an ideal backdrop that can be leveraged for divestment and the proposed National Monetisation Pipeline for brownfield infrastructure projects."
12.03 PM: Key announcements in Budget
-Capital expenditure budget to increase to Rs 5.54 lakh cr in FY'22 from Rs 4.39 lakh cr in RE for FY'21
-Government to bring LIC IPO in 2022. " In 2021-22 we would also bring the IPO of LIC for which I am bringing the requisite amendments in this session itself," FM added.
-Govt proposes investor charter across financial products
-Record Rs 1,10,055 crore provided for railways, of which Rs 1,07,100 cr for capital expenditure in 2021-22, says FM
-FM allocates Rs 65,000 cr for road, highway projects in Kerala, Rs 3,400 cr for Assam
-Govt to introduce bill to set up development financial institution with an outlay of Rs 20,000 crore
11. 55 AM:Textile stocks rise as Budget proposes textiles park scheme
Shares of textile stocks rose up to 3 per cent on the Bombay Stock Exchange after Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman announced in the Union Budget 2021 that seven textiles parks will be developed in the country.
11. 50 AM: Rupee rises 8 paise to 72.88
The rupee appreciated by 8 paise to 72.88 per US dollar on Monday's opening trade, ahead of the Union Budget 2021-22 presentation in Parliament.
Union budget 2021
The domestic unit opened at 72.89 against the US dollar at the interbank forex market and inched higher to 72.88, rising 8 paise over its previous close.
On Friday, the rupee had settled at 72.96 against the American currency.
11. 46 AM: Market rises further on budget announcement
In a volatile trading session, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rose sharply on Monday, as Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman initiated the announcement of Union Budget 2021. BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, traded 800 higher at 47,097 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 215 points to 13,850.
11. 41 AM: Auto stocks surge on scrappage policy
Auto stocks rose upto 2 per cent after the Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman announced scrappage policy. Government vehicles older than 15 years will also be scrapped as per the vehicle scrappage policy. The BSE Auto index was up 1.10 per cent at 22,355.06.
Reacting to the news, shares M&M rose over 2 per cent, followed by Tata Motors, Hero MotoCorp, Maruti and Bajaj Auto among others.
11. 33 AM: Highlights from budget 2021
-FM announces Jal Jeevan mission with outlay of Rs 2.87 lakh crore for 4,378 urban local bodies
-Proposes introduction of Aatmanirbhar health prog with an outlay of Rs 64,180 cr
-7 textile parks to be established over 3 years
-Govt to provide Rs 35,000 cr for Covid-19 vaccination in 2021-22; committed to providing more funds, says FM
-Budget proposals rest on 6 pillars, including health and well-being; physical and financial capital, says FM
-Rs 25,000 crore announced for highways in poll-bound West Bengal
-Vehicle scrapping policy- After 20 years for personal vehicle and 15 years for commercial vehicles
11. 28 AM: : Healthcare stocks trade flat
Shares of healthcare stocks were trading flat with negative bias on the Bombay Stock Exchange despite budgetary allocation of Rs 64,000 crore for healthcare schemes. The BSE Healthcare was down 0.10 per cent at 20,608.04.
11. 22 AM: Brookfield India Real Estate Trust (BIRET) IPO
Reliance Research said in its report today," BIRET is to be the third REIT to get listed in India after Mindspace and Embassy REITs. The REIT instrument is most popular in global markets, where REITs usually invest in ready-to-use or leased-out properties acquisitions and reduce gestation periods. Notably, REITs must be looked at cash flow perspective and BIRET generated cumulatively Rs11.4bn FCF through FY18-1HFY21. Given substantial reduction in debt level after fund raising, we expect saving on finance cost should aid the company to generate positive net distributable cash flows (NDCF) from FY22E onwards. However, the NAV per unit as on 1HFY21 is estimated at Rs311 (13% premium from issue price). Further, the company expects NDCF to the tune of Rs6.6bn and Rs7bn in FY22E and FY23E, respectively which offer yield of ~8%. Hence, we recommend SUBSCRIBE from long-term perspective."
11. 14 AM: Nifty technical support and resistance for today
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst-Technical and Derivatives, Angel Broking said,"Now, looking at the weekly time frame close below '5-EMA' along with 'Shooting Star' pattern on Monthly chart, the Nifty is possibly headed towards strong support zone of Weekly '20-EMA' and daily '89-EMA' zone of 13200 - 13000. However, since the Finance Minister is going to present the 'Union Budget' today, the immediate direction would be decided on the actual outcome of the event. But looking at the price structure, we do not expect Nifty to surpass 14000 - 14200 before completing its corrective phase. So if market reacts positively post the event, 13800 - 14000 - 14200 becomes a cluster of resistances and a move towards this should ideally be used to lighten up longs. On the other hand, sooner or later, the Nifty is likely to extend correction towards mentioned levels of 13200 - 13000. Although we have been cautious of late, we believe that a fall towards these supports should be used to accumulate quality propositions in a staggered manner with a broader perspective."
11.05 AM: Budget 2021 begins!
The FM has initiated with the announcement of budget from Parliament. One can watch all the latest updates on the Union Budget on the government's YouTube channel. In this year's budget, the Centre is expected to primarily focus on manufacturing, Atmanirbhar Bharat and healthcare as main themes. Agriculture and infrastructure may also receive a push.
11.01 AM: Market update
BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, traded 550 higher at 46,850 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 140 points to 13,775.
On the Sensex chart, IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC, ONGC, Titan and HDFC Bank were prominent gainers. Of the Sensex constituents, 16 shares were trading in the green.
10. 57 AM: Sun Pharma Q3 outlook
Yash Gupta Equity Research Associate, Angel Broking said," Sun Pharma reported another stellar quarter numbers in Q3FY21. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited consolidated revenue from operations for Q3FY21 stood at Rs8,782 crores up by 9.2% YoY from Rs8,038 crores in Q3FY20. Domestic business has done well for the company, the company reported sales growth of 9.4% in domestic business While the USA and emerging market registered a growth of 7% and 4.7% respectively. EBITDA for Q3FY21 stood at Rs2,351 crores up by 36.3% as compared to Rs1724 crores in Q3FY20. Company reported EBITDA margins of 26.8% which are better than last quarter. Profit after tax for the quarter up by 102.8% at Rs1,852 crores in Q3FY21 as compared to Rs913 crores in Q3FY20. In Q3FY21 the company reported PAT margins of 21.1%. Indian formulation business and Rest of world business have done very well for the company, reporting revenue growth of 9.4% and 11.7% respectively. While emerging market businesses struggle to keep the momentum and reported a sales growth of 4.7% only. We expect the company to continue to do well in Indian market and will improve its revenue growth in the USA market as well as the Emerging market. We have a Neutral outlook towards. Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited"
10. 42 AM: Gold and silver outlook
Anuj Gupta- DVP- Commodities and Currencies Research, Angel Broking said," On Monday, Silver price are up around 8 percent in the international markets currently trading at $28.56 per Oz. Gold prices also trading on a positive note at 49560 levels up by 0.47% levels. This rally in silver prices is on account of social media posts urging retail investors to buy silver mining stocks and iShare silver trust, an exchange traded fund backed by silver holdings , leading to retail frenzy, in turn rising prices for the silvery metal
Weakness in dollar and no concrete signs of the additional $1.9 trillion virus relief fund by US further weighed on Gold. As of today Traders can go for buy in Gold at 49300 levels with the stop loss of 49000 levels for the target of 50000 levels. They can also for buy in Silver at 72000 levels with the stop loss of 70500 levels for the target of 74500 levels. In international market gold may test $1900 levels and silver may test $30 levels very soon."
10. 39 AM: Economic outlook for the week
Aishwarya Sonker, in Economics Weekly report from JMFL said,"From violent clashes during the tractor rally on Republic day to steady stock market correction from peaks ahead of the budget, the current week was an eventful one. Farmers cancelled their march to the Parliament on the budget day (1Feb) and the Economic Survey of India 2020-21 was tabled at the Parliament. The Survey emphasized on themes including-countercyclical fiscal policies vs. fiscal rules & sovereign ratings, hike in public spending on health/education, and simplification of reforms and regulations.
Further, the survey predicts a v-shaped recovery with real GDP growth at 11%YoY in FY22, in line with the IMF's sharp upward revision for India's growth trajectory (as the fastest and only major economy growing in 2-digits in 2021). Data releases during the week revealed- i) the Centre's FYTD21 (until Dec'20) fiscal deficit at 145% of BE vs. 132% last year, with a sharp uptick in spending in 3Q, and ii) continued contraction in the eight core industries' output in Dec'20.
Other highlights of the week included- i) Road ministries' proposal to impose a 'Green Tax', ii) release of new guidelines for Covid-19 containment from 1 Feb'21 that allow further opening up of cinemas/swimming pools/exhibitions, and iii) a 2% cut in VAT on petrol, diesel in Rajasthan govt. amidst the all-time high fuel prices. Meanwhile, Forex reserves rose to USD 585.3bn on 22 Jan'21 vs. USD 584.2bn on 15 Jan'21. We look forward to the Union Budget 2021-22 on 1 Feb'21, and then to the RBI's monetary policy on 5 Feb'21. Data releases to watch out for would include GST collections and PMI (manufacturing and services)."
10. 27 AM: Rupee opens higher ahead of Budget
Rupee rises 7 paise to 72.89 against US dollar in early trade, ahead of the announcement of Union Budget 2021.
10. 24 AM: Global market potray mixed trend
Asian markets are trading higher today, as Chinese manufacturing activity in January came in at 51.5.
US markets closed lower on Friday even as weekly unemployment claims dipped below 9,00,000 while personal income rose more than expected in December.
European markets closed lower on Friday as the recent talks on huge retail buying in selected stocks has called for caution. Retail stocks gave up the most.
10. 15 AM: Nifty outlook
Geojit Financial said in its note,"Potential for a reversal or atleast a slow down, as indicated by the doji formed on Thursday, was thrown out of contention by the massive bearish engulfing pattern formed on Friday. The bullish candles seen on 15m candles formed on Friday towards the close could prompt a pull back, which could last till 13800, before resuming the plunge to 13500-13330. Alternatively, direct rise above 13800 would call for 14130."
10. 10 AM: Budget Expectations
The Modi government could consider addressing a few crucial issues that affect farmers across the country in the forthcoming Union budget. Experts say the government may consider announcing a loan waiver scheme to appease farmers across the country.
The Shopping Centres Association of India (SCAI) has sought financial waivers, a loan moratorium for the sector along with easing of income tax norms in the upcoming Union Budget.
The auto and real estate sectors, which are still struggling, have urged the government to give more tax breaks to citizens, leaving them with higher disposable incomes. The key demands of the real estate sector comprise tax rebate on housing, GST waiver, personal tax relief, extension of interest subvention, easing liquidity for the sector, and infrastructure status for realty.
The National Real Estate Development Council (NAREDCO) in its recommendations to the Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has sought to remove the ban on subvention scheme for home loans. It noted that the ban is not in favour of home buyers as a large proportion of them do not have the capacity to pay both EMIs on their home loans as well as house rents.
10.03 AM: Market update
Besides Budget 2021-2022, macro data, ongoing corporate earnings season and global market performance would also impact stock market trading this week
9. 55 AM: Market to raly on Budget today
India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is expected to unveil plans to boost economic growth at the world's second-most populous country when she presents the Federal budget on Monday.
Investors also await growth projections for the upcoming financial year from the annual economic survey which will be presented later in the day.
9. 52 AM: FII action last week
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold shares worth Rs 5,930.66 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs), were net buyers to the tune of Rs 2,443.20 crore in the Indian equity market on 29 January, provisional data showed.
The weakness in the last five sessions was in line with foreign institutional investors (FII) turning into sellers in domestic securities since January 22. As per experts, the trend is to continue ahead of the budget.
FIIs have sold shares worth Rs 12,731 crore in last five trading sessions. FIIs offloaded shares worth Rs 5,930.66 crore on Friday and Rs 3,712.51 crore on net basis on Thursday, according to exchange data.
9. 48 AM: 30-60% drop in these stokcs in pre budget period
Stocks in S&P BSE 500 index that have fallen 10-30% in the pre budget period include stocks like Maruti Suzuki, GMR Infra, HDFC, DLF, M&M Financial, RBL Bank, Vakrangee, and Chennai Petroleum, among others.
9. 43 AM: Market update: volatility continues; top gainers and losers
Considering the fact that the market has seen six consecutive days of fall, market experts feel that the market thhat has continued volatility today could swing in either direction. IndusInd Bank, ICICI Bank, SBI, HDFC Bank added 1% to Nifty Bank index today.
HCL Tech, Dr Reddy, Tech Mahindra were among top losers.
9. 40 AM: A new national bank to finance infra projects?
FM may announce a national bank to finance infrastructure projects in the upcoming budget. The FinMin has reportedly prepared a draft of the bill called - the National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development Bill, 2020, which will have an authorised capital of one lakh crore rupees and twenty thousand crore rupees as an initial paid-up capital.
9. 33 AM: Stocks to watch today on February 1
Titan, Airtel, ICICI Bank, SJVN, Tata Motors, Cipla among others are the top stocks to watch out for in Monday's trading session
Investors are also awaiting December earnings that are scheduled to be released today. Companies set to announce their earnings are Castrol, Coromandel International, Finolex Industries, Fortis Hospitals, Nerolac Paints, Mastek among others.
9. 23 AM: Opening session: Market starts bullish ahead of budget
As predicted earlier, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty opened on a bullish note on Monday, ahead of the announcement of Union Budget 2021. SGX Nifty on the Singapore Exchange recovered and traded higher by 30 points, indicating a positive start in domestic grounds today. BSE benchmark index S&P Sensex, traded 300 higher at 46,590 and NSE Nifty 50 index gained 65 points to 13,702.
9. 16 AM: Will govt increase LTCG exemption limit beyond Rs 1 lakh
From a stock markets' point of view, reforming the taxation burden on LTGC and removal of dividend distribution tax have been longstanding expectations of investors. These moves are likely to provide more liquidity in the form of disposable income.
Where some experts have stated that the government is unlikely to revoke or abolish taxes to keep up revenue flows, others are of the view that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's Budget for 2021-22 is likely to increase LTCG exemption limit beyond Rs 1 lakh.
9. 10 AM: Rupee closing
In the foreign exchange market, the partially convertible rupee appreciated to 72.96 compared with its previous closing of 73.05.
9.09 AM: Q3 Earnings today
Castrol India, Coromandel International, Finolex Industries, Fortis Malar Hospitals, Kansai Nerolac Paints, Mastek, OnMobile Global, Rane Brake Lining, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infrastructure, Subex, Talbros Engineering, Triveni Turbine and Zydus Wellness are among the top companies that are scheduled to announce their quarterly earnings.
8. 57 AM: Market reaction on Budget 2020
Markets were nervous after the announcement of the scrapping of dividend distribution tax on companies and cutting taxes for individuals. Announcement of selling govt's stake in Life Insurance Corp. of India also sparked sharp decline in stocks of private insurers. The finance minister pegged the fiscal deficit target for the year 2020/21 at 3.5% of the GDP and revised the country's fiscal deficit target to 3.8% for the current fiscal year.
With no major boost for industry, budget 2020 failed to cheer the Dalal street as the market witnessed its biggest fall on February 1 since 2009. Sensex crashed 2.43% and closed right below 40K, as investors lost around Rs 3.6 lakh crore of wealth on BSE.
8. 44 AM: Market on Budget days
The domestic stock market has witnessed high volatility during most Union Budget announcements in the last 10 years.
Of the last 10 budgets, the stock market has closed lower six times. Twice the indices closed over 1% lower (2012, 2013). This excludes Budget 2020's 2.4% drop in Sensex, the worst budget-day plunge since 2009. On most occasions, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty have mostly ended with a muted response after registering high volatility throughout the session.
8. 36 AM: Global market trend today
Amid worries that problems with vaccine rollouts combined with new strains of COVID-19, markets overseas closed in red last week. Asian markets, however, reversed trend and traded higher today.
U.S. stock indexes fell sharply on Friday after COVID-19 vaccine data from Johnson & Johnson hurt sentiment, while a standoff between Wall Street hedge funds and small, retail investors weighed.
In US, worries of a short squeeze grew after an army of retail investors returned to trade shares in GameStop Corp and Koss Corp. The stocks sky-rocketed after brokers including Robinhood eased some of the restrictions they had placed on trading. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission warned both brokerages and social media traders that it was closely monitoring potential wrongdoing.
8. 32 AM: Expectations on Budget day
Angel Broking in its note said," Post the Covid-19 pandemic there are expectations that the budget would contain measures to boost the economy. In the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Government had undertaken targeted fiscal measures aimed at supporting the most critical sectors given the lack of fiscal space to provide support to the economy in the form of large cash spending. We expect the Union Budget 2021-22 to focus on boosting growth through a combination of higher spending along with targeted tax breaks, which will help boost consumption. We expect continued focus on critical sectors like Housing infrastructure and manufacturing along with continued thrust on boosting the rural economy."
8. 27 AM: Economy Survey 2021-22
The Economic Survey 2020-21, tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in the parliament on Friday, forecasted robust economic growth of 11% for the fiscal year beginning on 1 April 2021.
The document prepared by Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) KV Subramanian stated that the Indian economy is set to contract 7.7% in this fiscal year, the deepest contraction in four decades. The survey also predicted a V-shaped recovery in the next fiscal.
The Indian government may need to continue with an expansionary fiscal stance in order to sustain the recovery in aggregate demand, said the Economic Survey for 2020-21.
The survey, that failed to impress market, added that the soon-to-conclude financial year is likely to see a fiscal slippage and added that the expenditure support provided during the year will impart the required momentum to mid-term growth.
8. 21 AM: Market last week
The Indian benchmark indices witnessed sharp correction last week and as per experts, the share market is expected to remain volatile in this eventful week. In the last week, the 30-share BSE benchmark tumbled 2,592.77 points or 5.30 per cent as investors resorted to profit-booking ahead of the Union Budget. Further this week, key economic data that will release that includes manufacturing PMI, services PMI and GST collections data for January.
On stock market reaction to Budget 2021, Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, said, "In this waning domestic trend, Budget will be the key to provide strength and perform better compared to the rest of the world. Expectations are high that the government should maintain the populist and reformist agenda of maintaining the mass sentiments, deficit discipline and growth in difficult pandemic period."
8. 16 AM: Budget 2021 proceedings to begin at 11 am
Budget 2021 proceedings will begin at 11 am. Last year, Sitharaman had delivered the longest ever budget speech on February 1, 2020. She spoke for 2 hours and 41 minutes. The Union Budget 2021 may well be a "budget like never before", as Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman claimed during pre-budget consultations in December. When Sitharaman speaks in Parliament today, she'll have a twin task to deliver -- reviving the economy that was already shaking when Covid-19 hit the country in early 2020 and tackle challenges thrown by the pandemic swiftly.
8.08 AM: Sensex, Nifty may start higher today
Market is awaiting key reforms that could push growth and kickstart the capex cycle in the economy. SGX Nifty on the Singapore Exchange recovered and traded higher by 30 points, indicating a positive start in domestic grounds today.
In economic data, Markit Manufacturing PMI for January will be declared today, 1 February 2021. RBI's Monetary Policy Committee will come out with its last bi-monthly policy for the current financial year on Friday.
8:00 AM: Union Budget 2021-22 to dictate market trend
The share market is expected to remain volatile in this eventful week as the Union Budget. The Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present Union Budget 2021 on February 1, 2021. This would be the eighth Annual Budget under the ruling BJP government, where she will unveil plans to boost the economy battered by COVID-19 pandemic. Ahead of the presentation of the Budget, the Economic Survey 2021 was tabled in Parliament on January 29.