Iranian intelligence initiates indirect contact with CIA to discuss end to conflict: Report

Iranian intelligence operatives have taken the unusual step of reaching out to the United States via indirect channels to discuss terms for ending the ongoing conflict involving Washington and Israel, according to officials briefed on the outreach. The initiative arose shortly after attacks on Iran commenced, raising questions in both capitals about the viability of negotiations and the future of Iran’s leadership amid sustained military pressure.

Operatives from Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence reportedly contacted the CIA through a third country’s intelligence agency just one day after strikes on Iran began. Middle Eastern and Western officials, speaking to The New York Times on condition of anonymity, characterised the approach as a tentative offer, while U.S. officials remain doubtful that either side is prepared to engage in substantive talks at this stage. The climate of mistrust and uncertain leadership in Iran has exacerbated the challenges facing such diplomatic overtures.

Inside the Trump administration, there is debate over potential post-conflict scenarios. The U.S. President initially encouraged public uprising in Iran, telling citizens in a video that “the hour of your freedom is at hand” and suggesting grassroots action could reshape the country’s future. However, the administration has recently adopted a more measured stance, with Trump stating, “They’ll have that opportunity, but honestly that’s going to be up to them. They’re going to have to make that decision.”

The ongoing military campaign has targeted senior Iranian figures, and U.S. President Donald Trump has recently remarked that “Most of the people we had in mind are dead. Pretty soon we are not going to know anybody.” These comments reflect the uncertainty over who within Iran’s government could engage in meaningful negotiations, as well as the limited number of remaining potential interlocutors.

Israeli officials have urged Washington to ignore the Iranian approach, favouring a campaign designed to markedly weaken Iran’s military capabilities. Some in Israel are wary of what Steven A. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations termed a “Venezuela-like solution to change in Iran,” particularly if it might involve elements of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assuming greater influence.

Within the U.S. administration, some officials have drawn comparisons to Venezuela, where American pressure resulted in significant political concessions from the country’s successor leadership. President Trump has commented, “What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect scenario. Leaders can be picked.” Nevertheless, analysts caution that Iran’s complex internal dynamics and the strength of the IRGC complicate efforts to engineer similar outcomes.

The IRGC, a powerful military and economic force, is viewed by some U.S. officials and analysts as a possible centre of authority if the current Iranian leadership structure collapses. However, ongoing Israeli strikes have intensified uncertainty regarding which individuals might survive to consolidate power. The CIA had previously prepared assessments outlining potential trajectories for Iran’s leadership, but officials admit that none of the scenarios carry high confidence due to the unpredictability of events on the ground.

Amid long-standing tensions, President Trump has oscillated between denouncing Iran’s leaders as “radical lunatics” and expressing a willingness to engage with “more moderate” figures within the existing system. Recently, however, he declared on social media that it is “too late” for talks with Iran, underscoring the fragile and rapidly changing nature of prospects for any diplomatic breakthrough.