Monsoon is here, so where’s the rain? You may have to wait...

Despite the southwest monsoon continuing its advance across parts of India, widespread rainfall is unlikely to make a strong comeback anytime soon. Weather models indicate that monsoon activity will remain weak for at least another week, with a more meaningful revival expected only towards the end of June.

Meteorologists say the monsoon has technically progressed into additional parts of central and eastern India, but the system remains unusually subdued. As a result, large-scale monsoon activity is expected to stay largely inactive between June 15 and June 21, prolonging rainfall deficits that have already emerged across several regions.

Instead of widespread monsoon showers, much of the precipitation during the coming week is expected to come from localised thunderstorms, particularly over southern India.

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The Karnataka-Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu border region and the Eastern Ghats are likely to witness frequent thunderstorm activity, bringing pockets of moderate to heavy rain, lightning and gusty winds.

The subdued phase comes even as conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to advance further into additional parts of Maharashtra, the remaining areas of Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Chhattisgarh over the next four to five days.

Meteorologists note that monsoon advancement and monsoon activity are not always the same. While the rain-bearing winds may continue moving northward, the atmospheric conditions required for widespread rainfall remain weak at present.

The second half of June, however, could bring a gradual improvement.

Between June 22 and June 28, thunderstorm activity is expected to intensify over interior Karnataka, the Andhra Pradesh-Karnataka border region, southern Tamil Nadu and the Western Ghats of Kerala.

Coastal Kerala and Karnataka, along with the Ghats stretching northward toward Mumbai, are also expected to receive a noticeable increase in rainfall, although current forecasts do not indicate exceptionally heavy monsoon spells.

A more significant turnaround may arrive by the end of the month. Multi-model weather guidance suggests the southwest monsoon could begin reviving between June 29 and July 5.

Southern Kerala's Western Ghats and the Konkan coast are expected to be among the first regions to experience stronger monsoon conditions, with the potential for heavy rainfall episodes.

The forecast offers some relief after a sluggish phase of the season. With large parts of the country currently facing rainfall deficits and satellite imagery showing limited monsoon cloud activity, meteorologists will be closely tracking signs of the expected revival during the final week of June.

Until then, thunderstorms are likely to remain the primary source of meaningful rainfall across many parts of India, while the monsoon itself stays relatively subdued.