Weak September rainfall after hottest August since 1901: IMD issues El Niño warning

India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall in September, with the strengthening El Niño phenomenon emerging as a key factor behind the weak monsoon outlook, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.

The warning comes after the country recorded an exceptionally hot August, with the month witnessing its highest average temperatures for August since records began in 1901, according to the latest weather assessment.

El Niño strengthens further

The IMD said El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean have strengthened and are expected to intensify further in the coming months. El Niño is characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and can influence atmospheric circulation and rainfall patterns across the globe.

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For India, El Niño has historically been associated with weaker monsoon rainfall. The strengthening of the phenomenon is therefore a concern as the country enters the final month of the southwest monsoon season.

The IMD's assessment also suggests that the El Niño influence contributed to the rainfall deficiency witnessed during August.

September rainfall likely below normal

The IMD has forecast that all-India rainfall in September is likely to be below normal, at less than 91 per cent of the long-period average. September normally records around 167.9 mm of rainfall across the country.

The forecast follows a weak August, when India's rainfall was around 16 per cent below normal, according to the weather department. The shortfall is significant because September rainfall remains important for standing kharif crops as well as soil moisture conditions ahead of the winter crop season.

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However, rainfall is expected to vary considerably across regions, with some parts of the country likely to receive normal or above-normal rainfall despite the overall below-normal forecast.

August turns exceptionally hot

The rainfall shortage was accompanied by unusually high temperatures. August 2026 was India's hottest August since 1901, adding another dimension to the country's weather concerns.

The IMD expects temperatures to remain elevated in September as well. Both average maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to stay above normal across large parts of the country, although some areas could experience different conditions.

The combination of reduced rainfall and higher temperatures could increase heat stress, water demand, and pressure on agriculture, particularly in regions already experiencing rainfall deficits.

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Agriculture faces fresh concerns

The September rainfall outlook is particularly important for farmers. Several kharif crops, including soybean, cotton, maize, and pulses, are entering crucial growth and development stages.

A prolonged rainfall deficit could affect crop yields, while inadequate soil moisture could also create difficulties for the sowing of winter crops such as wheat, chickpea and rapeseed.

India's dependence on the monsoon makes the situation especially significant. Monsoon rainfall replenishes reservoirs, groundwater and soil moisture while supporting large sections of the agricultural economy.