"For FY26, the current account deficit of India was 25 billion dollars. So we had our current account deficit very controlled. Gold imports gross in one year is 72 billion. Therefore, if you exclude gold, India had a current account surplus," Kotak said.
The veteran banker cautioned that rising international prices and sustained appetite could push the current account deficit (CAD) to nearly $60 billion in FY27, assuming crude oil averages around $90 per barrel, driven heavily by an estimated $88-90 billion outbound gold bill.
"Indians and their gold - that is a puzzle we have to find a way to solve," he said, adding that a high-level panel could help devise mechanisms to integrate household gold assets into the formal economy while respecting individual savings preferences.
Beyond bullion, Kotak addressed critical broad-market vulnerabilities, calling for tighter fiscal discipline as consolidated deficit levels hover above 7%.
"At 7 plus percent consolidated fiscal deficits, we need to get tighter," he said, emphasising that while capital markets have successfully transitioned India toward an investor-to-issuer framework, market participants must guard against speculative excesses, the Moneycontrol reported.
"At times when the objective of capital formation gets lost and we focus on just markets, volumes and trading, we at times run the risk of missing the key reason why we have financial markets," he said.
Encouraging policymakers to seize global volatility to fast-track structural reforms, Kotak urged India to scale up domestic manufacturing to curb reliance on foreign goods.
"There is a global crisis and the principle of a global crisis is never waste a crisis. We must make full use of the crisis and implement measures at speed and alacrity," he said. "The more we can produce and create goods and services which the world wants from us will make us competitive."