Brent crude drops below $90 for first time since August as Trump signals possible end to Iran war

International oil prices fell to multi-month lows on Tuesday, with Brent crude slipping below $90 per barrel for the first time since August, as hopes of easing US-Iran tensions reduced geopolitical risk premiums. Comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting that the nearly nine-month conflict could end soon triggered fresh selling in energy markets.

Brent crude futures for January delivery briefly dropped below $90 before trading 2.65% lower at $90.14 per barrel at 5:33 am ET. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 2.4% to $84.78 per barrel, CNBC reported on Tuesday.

The decline reflects growing expectations that oil supplies from the Gulf could normalise as diplomatic efforts gather momentum.

Trump signals possible end to Iran conflict

Speaking at the White House following a meeting with Qatar's Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Trump suggested that the conflict could conclude sooner than expected.

"We’re seeing momentum toward the end of this conflict. I think it’s going to be ending fairly soon," Trump said, adding that Tehran was "talking very politely" with Washington.

"Iran militarily is effectively over," he told reporters.

Oil markets reacted to the possibility of reduced military confrontation and improving crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial global energy transit route.

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Brent began 2026 near $60 per barrel before surging towards $130 during escalating military strikes in March and April. Prices subsequently retreated before renewed tensions pushed them higher.

Why are crude prices falling?

ING strategists Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson said markets were removing part of the geopolitical premium accumulated during the conflict.

"The market has continued to unwind some of the geopolitical risk premium built into prices in recent weeks as expectations grow that the conflict between the US and Iran could move towards de-escalation," they said.

Recovering regional oil flows and indications that Iran could soften its position on the Strait of Hormuz have further reduced supply disruption concerns.

However, uncertainty surrounding negotiations and potential infrastructure damage continues to pose risks.

Energy consultancy FGE chairman Fereidun Fesharaki remained sceptical about a peace agreement, citing substantial differences between Washington and Tehran over nuclear material and control of the strategic waterway.

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Brent crude technical outlook: Can prices fall towards $80?

Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum continues to dominate the oil market.

Brent has slipped below important moving averages and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, indicating weakening price momentum.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 33.43, approaching oversold territory.

The $88–$90 range represents immediate support and could trigger a temporary rebound.

However, prices would need to reclaim resistance levels at $93.96 and $101.18 to signal a meaningful reversal of the medium-term downtrend.

A confirmed daily close below $88.36 could accelerate selling towards the next major support level around $80.38.

For oil-importing economies such as India, sustained lower crude prices could ease import costs, reduce inflationary pressures and support the rupee. Nevertheless, renewed geopolitical escalation could quickly reverse the decline.

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