FY26 real GDP seen at ₹322.58 lakh crore as new base year projects 7.6% growth

Real GDP is estimated to grow 7.6% in 2025-26 to ₹322.58 lakh crore, as the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released a new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year, replacing the 2011-12 series on February 27. 

The ministry also unveiled the Second Advance Estimates of GDP for 2025-26 along with revised annual and quarterly estimates under the updated framework. The base year has been shifted to 2022-23, a post-Covid-19 normal year with robust and comprehensive data across sectors. 

For 2024-25, real GDP stood at ₹299.89 lakh crore, reflecting a growth of 7.1%. Nominal GDP for 2025-26 is projected at ₹345.47 lakh crore, up 8.6% from ₹318.07 lakh crore in 2024-25. 

Real Gross Value Added (GVA) is estimated to rise 7.7% to ₹294.40 lakh crore in 2025-26, compared with 7.3% growth in 2024-25. Nominal GVA is seen growing 8.7% to ₹313.61 lakh crore. 

Quarterly data showed real GDP in the October-December quarter (Q3) of 2025-26 expanding 7.8% year-on-year to ₹84.54 lakh crore. Nominal GDP in the same quarter grew 8.9% to ₹90.91 lakh crore. Real GVA in Q3 rose 7.8%, while nominal GVA increased 8.2%. 

Sectorally, the primary sector is estimated to have grown 4.9% in 2024-25, the secondary sector 8.0% and the tertiary sector 7.9%, contributing to overall real GVA growth of 7.3% in that year. 

Net National Income at current prices rose 10.2% to ₹271.44 lakh crore in 2024-25. Gross National Disposable Income increased 10.2% to ₹324.52 lakh crore. 

Gross Saving in 2024-25 is estimated at ₹111.13 lakh crore, up from ₹95.17 lakh crore in 2023-24, with households accounting for 62.1% of total savings. Gross Capital Formation is placed at ₹109.25 lakh crore, with the GCF-to-GDP ratio at 34.3% in 2024-25. 

Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at ₹179.71 lakh crore in 2024-25, maintaining a PFCE-to-GDP ratio of 56.5%. Government Final Consumption Expenditure is estimated at ₹33.95 lakh crore. 

Per capita Net National Income at current prices is estimated at ₹1,92,774 in 2024-25, up from ₹1,76,465 in 2023-24. 

The new series incorporates methodological changes such as greater use of GST and digitised administrative data, annual surveys like ASUSE and PLFS, double deflation in manufacturing, and integration of the Supply Use Table framework to reduce discrepancies between production and expenditure estimates. 

As per the advance release calendar, the Provisional Estimates of Annual GDP for 2025-26 and the fourth-quarter GDP data will be released on May 29, 2026.

Speaking on the GDP numbers, Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, said, "India’s real GDP growth moderated to 7.8% in Q3 FY2026 from 8.4% in Q2, though both exceeded expectations. The slowdown was led by agriculture and non-manufacturing sectors, while manufacturing posted double-digit growth for the fifth straight quarter and services rose to a seven-quarter high of 9.5%. GDP is now estimated to grow 7.6% in FY2026, up from 7.1% in FY2025, driven by manufacturing, services, consumption and investment. However, growth may ease to 7.3% in Q4. Revisions under the new 2022-23 base show a smaller nominal GDP, pushing up fiscal deficit and debt ratios versus earlier estimates, implying a steeper consolidation path."

"ICRA projects 7% growth in FY2027, supported by improved investment, capital spending, tax cuts and stable consumption. While H1 FY2026 growth has been revised lower, momentum remains strong, raising the likelihood of a prolonged pause in policy rates amid expected inflation pressures," he added.