India’s economic growth rate could be closer to 7%, beat estimates: RBI’s Poonam Gupta

India’s economic growth could come close to 7% in the financial year 2027 and may exceed the Reserve Bank of India’s current projection of 6.7%, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said on Thursday, citing resilient domestic activity despite higher oil prices, US tariffs and heightened global uncertainty.

As mentioned in Financial Express, Gupta was speaking at a lecture hosted by the Madras School of Economics. She said first-quarter growth is likely to be above 7%, based on high-frequency indicators. Some private forecasters have projected growth as high as 7.5%, she said, suggesting that full-year growth could also be close to 7%.

Gupta described the current environment as a “triple shock” of higher oil prices, US tariffs and extreme global uncertainty. Despite these challenges and the possibility of less favourable rainfall, she said the economy had remained resilient.

MUST READ | Q1 FY27 GDP growth seen at 7%; El Niño remains a concern

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee has projected real GDP growth at 6.7% for FY27, with quarterly estimates ranging from 6.4% to 7%.

Gupta said domestic growth had accelerated and become more stable and broad-based over the past decade. Inflation had also declined steadily and remained relatively stable, averaging around 4.8% in recent years.

She said India’s inflation had been close to the average for advanced economies and significantly lower than in emerging markets and developing economies. The RBI’s inflation-targeting framework over the past decade had served the country well, she added.

Gupta also highlighted the resilience and improved efficiency of the financial sector, citing RBI stress tests on banks and financial institutions.

DON'T MISS | RBI MPC: Gov Malhotra raises GDP growth projection for this year to 6.7% from 6.6%

India’s external sector remained structurally strong, supported by services exports, a surplus in net services, healthy remittance inflows and improving merchandise exports. Gupta also pointed to the country’s large and diverse economy and its demographic dividend as key strengths.

Growing trade fragmentation has encouraged India to diversify its exporters and importers, providing some protection against disruptions such as US tariffs.