Make in India: Why India’s manufacturing gains look stronger against a turbulent decade

India’s manufacturing performance between 2014 and 2025 needs to be assessed against a challenging global backdrop marked by the Covid-19 pandemic, tariff wars and geopolitical conflicts, according to an opinion article published in Hindu BusinessLine by Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran, Kokila Jayaram and Sahar.

The authors argue that judging the Make in India initiative against the preceding decade without accounting for the vastly different global environment risks understating the progress made by the country’s manufacturing sector.

India’s share of global manufacturing value added rose from 2.4% in 2014 to 3% in 2025, an improvement that the authors say compares favourably with Brazil, Mexico, Indonesia and South Africa.

A difficult decade for global trade

The article highlights the contrast between two periods of global trade. Between 2002 and 2013, world merchandise exports tripled from $6.2 trillion to $18.8 trillion, supported by expanding international trade, relatively stable rules and rising demand.

The subsequent period was markedly different. Between 2014 and 2025, global exports grew by less than two-fifths, as the pandemic, trade restrictions, sanctions and armed conflicts disrupted international commerce.

Despite these headwinds, India’s manufacturing value added grew by 73% over the period cited in the article, compared with 51% for China and 36% for the world. The authors also point to China’s expanding trade surplus and a decline in German industrial output to illustrate the pressures confronting major manufacturing economies.

The comparison, they argue, provides a more meaningful measure of India’s progress than an assessment that ignores changes in global economic conditions.

Manufacturing gains extend beyond output

The article also highlights improvements in manufacturing’s contribution to the domestic economy. Manufacturing’s share of gross value added rose from 14.7% in 2022–23 to 16.1% in 2025–26, according to the figures cited by the authors.

Registered factories employed 2.10 crore people in 2024–25, an increase of around 14 lakh from the previous year. The authors argue that rising factory employment matters because it can reflect a shift from informal work towards formal manufacturing jobs offering better pay and protection.

Selected industries have also expanded their production capacity. Solar module manufacturing capacity rose from 2.3 GW in 2014 to about 192 GW, while electronics exports reached $47.96 billion in 2025–26.

These developments suggest that manufacturing progress is not confined to a single industry, although the scale and durability of the gains will remain important measures of success.

Industrialisation remains a long-term task

The authors caution against treating industrialisation as an achievement that can be judged over a short period. Building manufacturing capacity requires sustained investment, infrastructure, skills, reliable policy and integration into global supply chains.

Their central argument is that India should be evaluated on whether it is building industrial capabilities faster than the countries against which it competes, rather than on a simple comparison with a more favourable global decade.

The gains highlighted in the article offer evidence of progress, but the longer-term test for Make in India will be whether this translates into sustained manufacturing growth, greater employment and a stronger position in global trade.