Brent oil nears $110: RIL, HPCL, IOC, BPCL, Petronet LNG, MGL, ONGC, GAIL, Oil India shares | Impact explained 

With Brent oil futures for November delivery hitting a high of $109.97 today, the sixth day of consecutive rise, Equirus Securities said sustained crude oil prices, particularly if petrol, diesel and LPG prices remain unchanged, could put pressure on oil marketing companies (OMCs), with the extent of the impact depending primarily on retail-price pass-through, government policies and refining cracks. Upstream comapnies such a sONGC and Oil India are seen as key beneficiaries of rising crude oil prices.

“If crude remains above $100 per barrel, with restricted retail-price increases, OMCs could face negative petrol and diesel marketing margins, higher LPG under-recoveries, higher crude-landing, freight and insurance costs, working-capital and debt accumulation and inventory losses if crude subsequently corrects sharply,” said Maulik Patel, Head of Research at Equirus Securities.

Impact on OMCs:  HPCL more vulnerable than IOC, BPCL

Among the major OMCs, HPCL is seen as the most vulnerable as its refining-to-marketing ratio stands at 51 per cent against 74 per cent for BPCL and 80 per cent for IOC. Consequently, it has the lowest internal refining cover and greatest dependence on imported products. HPCL’s distillate yield is also lower at 76 per cent against 80 per cent for IOC and 85 per cent for BPCL, limiting its ability to fully benefit from strong diesel and jet-fuel cracks. This also flows negatively into the balance sheet, where HPCL’s leverage is highest, Patel said.

IOC is placed second because its stronger integration provides a refining buffer. However, its absolute exposure to fuel marketing, LPG under-recoveries, inventory, working capital and expensive crude procurement remains substantial, along with petrochemical losses.

BPCL is relatively better placed because of better integration, its highest distillate yield, Bina’s crude flexibility and a comparatively stronger balance sheet, Patel said.

Impact on city gas diustributors: Gujarat Energy exposed, MGL  better cushioned

Among gas-linked companies, city gas distributors (CGDs) face near-term margin risk from rising spot LNG prices and crude-linked LNG contracts. However, CGD volumes remain relatively resilient, with sector consumption increasing to 55.2 mmscmd in FY27TD from 45.3 mmscmd in FY26, although the imported component has also risen sharply.

Equirus Securities' Head of Research said Gujarat Energy is exposed to higher Brent-linked spot LNG prices and rupee depreciation, partly offset by gas-trading profits. MGL is better cushioned through Henry Hub-linked sourcing and pricing action, although margins remain volatile in the near term.

Petronet LNG more exposed, GAIL relatively defensive bet  

Patel said Petronet LNG is more exposed to LNG affordability and regasification volumes. Qatar normalisation, tariff visibility and petrochemical capex remain key watchpoints.

"GAIL is relatively defensive because transmission earnings provide a buffer, while petrochemical and gas-marketing profitability improve due to higher realizations. Beyond oil and gas, the broad vulnerability ranking among non-oil-and-gas sectors is aviation, tyres, paints and adhesives," he said.

ONGC, Oil India key beneficiaries, RIL balanced 

Patel said ONGC and Oil India are most direct beneficiaries of higher crude realisations which has not been reflected in valuations yet.

He said Reliance Industries remains a balanced oil-linked exposure. Its complex O2C system benefits from strong product cracks, crude-basket diversification and feedstock flexibility, while Jio and Retail provide additional earnings diversification. Key catalysts are sustained O2C recovery, Jio ARPU and margin growth, Retail margin normalization and New Energy execution.

BPCL is Equirus Securities’ preferred OMC as a contrarian call on crude correction. BPCL’s better refining-to-marketing ratio and highest distillate yield provide a stronger integrated earnings buffer than HPCL. The stock currently trades at a cyclical-low trailing P/B of 1.3 times and could see a meaningful rerating if crude prices correct sharply.