BSE Q2 profit may fall QoQ, fate depends on CAS regulation outcome, says Nuvama

BSE is likely to report a sequential fall in Q2 earnings, Nuvama Institutional Equities said in its preview note, adding that BSE’s fate depends on Closing Auction Session (CAS) regulation outcome.

Nuvama said mormalised VIX and CAS dragged BSE’s Average Daily Premium Turnover Value (ADPTV) by 23.9 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q2. This, it said, is likely to drag earnings. Key monitorables include CAS regulation, any comments on cash market share improvement, colocation and update on SGF contribution, the domestic brokerage said.
  
Nuvama said BSE recorded index option Average Daily Premium Turnover Value (ADPTV) of Rs 22,500 crore. It said BSE may report revenue at Rs 1,430 crore, a growth of 34.1 per cent year-on-year (YoY) but de-growth of 8.5 per cent QoQ. It sees adjusted Profit at Rs 740 crore,  up 37.8 per cent YoY but down 13.5 per cent QoQ. Ebit is seen at Rs 890 crore.

The brokerage suggested a 'Hold' on BSE with a target of Rs 3,240, implying 1.9 per cent potential upside. BSE shares were up 2.74 per cent at Rs 3,266.70 on NSE today. The stock is up 24.30 per cent in 2026 so far.

Nuvama's note comes amid a Reuters report suggesting SEBI is likely to stop using the CAS framework to calculate derivatives settlement prices for at least a year. If true, this would mark a partial reversal of the new mechanism the market regulator introduced in August for setting the closing prices of key stocks and derivative contracts.

As per the report, the volume-weighted average price of the last ​30 minutes of trading will instead be used to determine the derivative pricing and that the regulator may implement the changes this month.

 Meanwhile, in the same note, Nuvama said AMCs and RTAs may report moderate AUM and revenue growth given weak equity mark-to-market (MTM). Cost management is likely to keep margins stable, it said adding that muted secondary market activity could be offset by strong primary markets, driving a stronger showing for CDSL.

"CAS dragged industry-wide volumes with BSE likely to report a sequential decrease in earnings. We reckon investor focus shall remain on sustainability of inflows. We believe CDSL’s stronger earnings are already priced in while BSE’s fate depends on CAS regulation outcome. We reckon CAMS/HDFCAMC are trading at attractive valuations," Nuvama said.

Its top picks are CAMS and HDFC AMC.