Defence stock to buy: Is it still worth to buy this shipping share after 3,000% in 6 yrs? 

Mazagon Dock shares target price: Analysts, both fundamental and technical, remain positive on Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Ltd, after it posted strong Q1FY27 resilts, with profit and EBITDA rising sharply. State-run defence player has delivered a massive long-term rally. Analysts remain positive, citing strong technical momentum and a robust order pipeline spanning submarines, frigates and destroyers, although near-term execution visibility remains a key concern.

Mazagon Dock share price
Shares of Mazagon Dock were trading around Rs 2,510 on Friday, falling nearly a per cent from its previous close at Rs 2,530. The company was commanding a market capitalization of 1 lakh crore. The stock is down 18 per cent from its 52-week high at Rs 3,061 hit in September 2025, while it has gained nearly 23 per cent from its 52-week lows at Rs 2,057.40, hit on March 30, 2026.

To recall, shares of Mazagon Dock were listed in October 2020, when the company raised Rs 444 crore from its IPO by selling its shares of Rs 145 apeice. However, the stock saw all time lows of Rs 84 post listing, but the stock has zoomed nearly 3,000 per cent from those levels. Despite a 2,000 per cent rally in five years, the stock is down 10 per cent in the last one year.

Mazagon Dock Q1 results
Mazagon Dock reported a 21.5 per cent jump in the net profit on a year-on-year (YoY) basis to Rs 549.41 crore, while its revenue from operations increased 12.1 per cent YoY to Rs 2,942.70 crore for the June 2026 quarter. Its EBITDA jumped 48 per cent YoY to Rs 301.7 crore, margins expanded 370 basis points to 15.2 per cent for the reported quarter.

Mazagon Dock Tech view
Mazagon is showing a strong improvement in its technical structure after witnessing a sharp rebound from lower levels, indicating that buyers have regained control following the recent correction. It has formed a strong bullish recovery, reflecting renewed buying interest and improving sentiment. The bounce suggests the possibility of an extension of the ongoing uptrend, said Choice Broking.

It is trading above its key 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day EMAs, highlighting a strong trend alignment across short- and medium-term time frames. The rising price structure, supported by healthy trading volumes, reinforces the positive outlook and indicates sustained buying momentum. Mazagon has the potential to advance towards the Rs 2,783 target," it added with a stop loss of Rs 2,300.

Mazagon Dock target price
We expect revenue to grow 8 per cent in FY27, constrained by limited executable order book visibility. While the P75 submarine program is expected to be awarded in the near term, meaningful execution and revenue recognition are likely to commence only towards the end of FY28. We factor in EBITDA margins of 19.4 per cent in FY27, along with benefits from reversal of liquidated damages, said Nirmal Bang.

"Margins in FY28 are expected to be lower than FY27, reflecting adverse project mix and lower operating leverage. Revenue, EBITDA, and PAT are expected to clock a CAGR of 10 per cent, 11 per cent, and 9 per cent, respectively, over FY26–FY28E. We retain 'buy' rating and value the stock at 39 times March 2028E earnings, arriving at a target price of Rs 3,158," it added.

Mazagon saw a healthy growth led by faster execution of platform projects. EBITDA margin for the quarter rose sharply due to P17A deliveries. It may continue its revenue growth over the next few years based on its healthy order pipeline consisting of submarines, frigates, and destroyers, which are long cycle (8-10 years) large ticket orders, said HDFC Securities.

The expected order value for six next-gen submarines is Rs 99,000 crore. Frigates and destroyers could additionally add INR 1500bn to the order book. We expect the revenue to start kicking in from FY28 for these platforms. The reduction in build time for large platform orders is shortening the revenue booking bell curve, bolstering revenue growth, it said with an 'add' rating and a target price of Rs 2,625.