Iran war: Nifty at 24,500? BPCL, IndiGo, L&T, KEC, HPCL, IOC shares may take hit; Hindalco, Infosys places to hide

Emkay Global in its latest said it sees a significant market correction, as Nifty could again test 24,500-25,000 levels, and even go lower, if the conflict lasts more than two weeks. If the hostilities end within a week, the market should revive just as quickly, it said.

In its base case, it sees hostilities ending in two weeks and the markets to recover sharply, as they did in October 2023 and Jun 2025. 

Emkay noted that while Iran’s response to US-Israel strikes in attacking other GCC countries escalated the seriousness, it still sees a relatively short conflict lasting a few days to a couple of weeks, given the imbalance between the two sides and the depletion of Iran’s leadership. 

Crude oil at $100 per barrel?
"In the short term, we expect severe dislocation of oil supplies and global supply chains, with a spike in Brent crude prices to $90-100 per barrel. Notably, the crude futures curve remained inverted on Friday (before the attacks), indicating that the market expects a quick resolution," it said.

Indian stock market outlook
There would surely be a global risk-off with India bearing the brunt, it said. Vulnerability to energy imports and the expensive valuations cast India on the wrong side of the trade, the brokerage added. 

"Expect aggressive, short-term FPI selling as well as a renewed run on the rupee. We are not building in any impact on domestic flows at this stage," Emkay said.

Stocks that may fall
Stocks that are directly hurt if the conflict lasts at least three-four weeks are OMCs as they may struggle to pass on higher costs. 
L&T, KEC International have large order books in the Middle East, it said adding that InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) could be hit due to cost-price pressure and flight cancellation. Capital goods, autos, and consumer durables may also get impacted if metal prices stay elevated for long.

Places to hide

Emkay said few sectors are unscathed against this scenario. "We think the best protection comes from i) Upstream energy, though some benefits could be offset by windfall taxes – ONGC/OIL; ii) Metals – the rally will spread beyond oil to other hard commodities – Hindalco; iii) IT sector – no impact on fundamentals, benefits from currency depreciation, but AI fears will weigh – Info/HCLT; iv) Pharma – classical defensive sector; v) Private banks – relatively inexpensive valuations, positive cycle (even if the CAD spike hurts deposit growth at the margin)," it said.

"A sustained war, however, poses significant macro risks for India. We see OMCs/select infra players/airlines the most vulnerable in this period. The best places to hide in are upstream energy, metals, IT, and private banks," it said.