Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up 50 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices shares are set to open with modest gains on Wednesday, though surging oil prices following reports the US will extend its blockade of Iranian ports ​and persistent foreign outflows are likely to cap gains. US President Donald ​Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran.

The Indian market is expected to remain sensitive to developments in the West Asia conflict, with rising crude oil prices, weak rupee and FII outflows continuing to influence sentiment, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research of Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Global cues will also be driven by the upcoming US Fed's policy decision for signals on interest rates and liquidity."
 

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks

GIFT Nifty Futures or Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 48 points, or 0.20 per cent, up at 24,117, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Wednesday. Markets got off to an uneven start in Asian trading on Wednesday. Nikkei was down 1 per cent, while KOSPI was marginally lower. Hang Seng rose more than a per cent.

US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, backing away from record closing highs as ​renewed concerns over the artificial intelligence boom weighed on technology stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.05 per cent to 49,141.93; the S&P 500 lost 0.49 per cent to 7,138.80 and the ‌Nasdaq Composite fell 0.90 per cent to 24,663.80.
 

Crude, US dollar, gold & more

Market attention will turn to the outcome of the Federal Reserve's April meeting later on Wednesday, which will be Jerome Powell's last as Fed chair.  Brent crude rose 0.4 per cent to $111.71 per barrel as efforts to end the Iran conflict hit an impasse. The US dollar index ⁠edged up 0.1 per cent to 98.67. Gold ​was down 0.3 per cent at $4,581.40. Bitcoin was flat at $76,471.21.

The session was largely influenced by persistent geopolitical uncertainty, particularly around US–Iran negotiations, which kept crude oil prices elevated and weighed on sentiment, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We recommend maintaining a cautious stance on the index and continuing with a sector- and theme-specific approach."

FII-DII flows

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 2,103.74 crore on Tuesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 1,712.01 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The 23,800–23,700 zone remains an immediate support area, and as long as this holds, minor dips are likely to be bought into. On the upside, the bearish gap from last week in the 24,300–24,400 zone is seen as immediate resistance. Beyond this, 24600, which aligns with the 61.8 per cent retracement of the fall from 26,000, remains a stiff hurdle, said Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angle One.

"Prices are likely to consolidate within a range with a positive bias. On the monthly expiry day, heightened activity is expected in individual stocks due to rollovers and position adjustments for the next series. Traders are therefore advised to focus on a stock-specific approach, as selective opportunities are likely to outperform while the index remains range-bound," he said.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank underperformed  and witnessed a brief bout of buying, but strong selling at higher levels pushed it lower through the day. Importantly, it has now slipped below its 20-day EMA on the daily chart, indicating short-term weakness, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.

"Going ahead, the immediate support for Bank Nifty is placed in the 54,900-54,800 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 54,400, followed by 54,000 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 55,900–56,000 zones is likely to act as an immediate resistance," it adds.

Nifty Bank formed a sizable bearish candlestick pattern with a lower high and a lower low signaling continuation of the corrective decline for the fifth session, said Bajaj Broking. "Overall, we expect the Bank Nifty to extend consolidation in the broad range of 54,500-57,500 amid stock specific action as we progress through the quarterly earning session of the banking stocks."

Within the consolidation only a move above 56,475 will open further upside towards the 57,000 and 57,500 levels in the coming sessions. From a short-term perspective, support is placed in the range of 54,500–54,000 zone, being the confluence of the recent low and 38.2 per cent retracement of the last 3 weeks pullback, Bajaj Broking adds.