Saudi oil refinery shutdown: Brent crude prices could hit triple-digit mark; here's how 

Crude oil prices are on the boil with Iran exchanging missile and drone attacks with the US and its old ally Israel. The impact of the Middle East War on the oil prices would have been lesser if Iran would not have attacked US allies in the Middle East including Saudi Arabia, the second-largest producer of oil after the US. 

Saudi's oil refinery Ras Tanura came under drone attack from Iran and was temporarily shut on Monday. The refinery, among the largest in Saudi Arabia, can process 550,000 barrels of crude oil per day. This implies removal of nearly 16% of the kingdom's refining capacity from the global market.

Apart from crude, the facility is a also a key supplier of diesel and refined products. After the closure, ICE gasoil futures surged more than 20%. 

In reaction, Aramco said that domestic petroleum supplies have not been affected. However, global traders are already pricing in a significant geopolitical risk premium due to the facility's vulnerability.

The impact was felt on crude oil prices, which surged 12% to a 52 week high of $82.37 per barrel on Monday. The closure of Hormuz Strait, a passage which helps carry 20% (about 20 million barrels per day) of the global oil supply, also brought crude oil prices on the boil. 

According to experts interviewed by Reuters and Middle East Council on Global Affairs, any disruption to the oil at Aramco can lead to a rise in the vulnerability of the global oil supply chain. 

According to analysts, duration of the shutdown of refinery is a key factor that could dictate the brent crude prices in the near term. If the disruption of oil supply lasts for a week, it would not mean much for the brent oil rates. 

However, if the shutdown is prolonged for up to a month or beyond, oil prices could head toward $95 to $100 per barrel, Mohd Sedek Jantan, an investment strategist at IPP Global Wealth told Malaysian News agency Bernama. 

Brokerage JM Financial in a report om March 1 said it saw 
limited upside risk to crude prices due to potential disruption in Iran's crude export of 1.5–2mmbpd given oversupply of ~3.7mmbpd and Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity of 1–2mmbpd. 

However, that spare capacity of Saudi Arabia has taken a hit after the shutdown of the refinery. 

Add to it the potential disruption of crude exports by Iran, a major exporter within the OPEC group, oil prices are in for a high trajectory with volatile movement. 

As of early 2026, Iran produced nearly 3% to 4.5% of the world's total crude oil supply, with output estimated around 3.3 to 4 million barrels per day (bpd).