Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: Gift Nifty down 143 pts; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices are likely to open lower as caution over a possible escalation in the Iran war offset sentiment after US President Donald Trump threatened 'hell' if Tehran misses his deadline to reopen ​the Strait of Hormuz. Investor sentiment is also expected to be shaped by quarterly ‌business updates from several companies.

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 142.60 points, or 0.63 per cent, up at 22,624, hinting at a negative start for the domestic market on Monday. Asian stocks ‌were mixed at the start of trading in Asia on Monday. KOSPI gained more than 2 per cent, while Nikkei rose more than a per cent. Hang Seng was down nearly three-fourth a per cent.

Underlying pressures persist due to elevated crude oil prices, geopolitical risks and continued foreign fund outflows, which may limit sustained appreciation, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. "Market sentiment remains fragile and depends on the developments in the US–Iran conflict, with crude oil prices and foreign fund flows expected to remain key drivers."

US stocks ended ​slightly mixed on Thursday after paring deeper losses amid diplomatic signals from West Asia. The Dow Jones Industrial ​Average fell 0.13 per cent, to 46,504.67 points, the S&P 500 gained 0.11 per cent to 6,582.69 points and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.18 per cent, to 21,879.18.

Brent crude futures opened higher, rising 1.4 per cent to $110.58 a barrel after members of the OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise its oil ​output quotas by 206,000 barrels per day for May. Gold slid ​0.8 per cent to $4,638.54. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 1.9 per cent at $68,915.85, while ether gained 2.4 per cent to $2,117.61.

The US dollar index was steady at 100.23. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was up 1.4 basis points at 4.3584 per cent. India's rupee and government bond markets this week will take cues from the Iran conflict and the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy commentary, as investors gauge the impact of energy supply disruptions on the country's economy.

Amid macro uncertainty, elevated crude oil prices, and persistent FII outflows, investors should maintain a cautious and selective approach. Portfolio allocation should remain tilted toward fundamentally strong large-cap stocks, said Ajit Mishra, Research- SVP at Religare Broking. "Traders should remain agile, avoid aggressive leverage, and adhere to disciplined risk management practices."

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 9,931.13 crore on Thursday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 7,208.41 crore on a net-net basis. FPIs pulled out Rs 1.17 lakh crore from Indian equities in March 2026, while Rs 23,800 crore in April so far.

The crash of the rupee to 95.30 to the dollar was the consequence of excessive speculation, said Dr VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Investments. "Sustained selling by the FPIs have made Indian market valuations fair and in some segments attractive. But FPI inflows can happen only when there is de-escalation on the war front leading to decline in crude."
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market has formed a promising reversal pattern on intraday charts, indicating the potential for a further uptrend from the current levels. 22,500/72,700 and 22,300/72,000 would act as key support zones for the market. As long as the market trades above these levels, a pullback formation is likely to continue, said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

"On the higher side, the bounce-back could extend till 22,900–23,000/74,000-74,200. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting the market to 23,200/75,000. Conversely, if the market falls below 22,300/72,000, the uptrend would become vulnerable. Below this level, traders may prefer to exit their long positions," he said.

The index remained under sustained pressure and declined to a low of 22,182.55. A recovery was witnessed in the latter part of the week, helping the index close at 22,713.10. Overall, it reflected a cautious to slightly negative market sentiment, said Choice Broking.

"From a technical standpoint, the 22,150–21,900 zone is likely to act as a key support area. On the upside, resistance is seen in the 23,000–23,500 range. The RSI on the weekly timeframe stands at 27.88, indicating that the market is in an oversold territory and may be nearing a potential reversal zone," it adds.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

Nifty Bank has formed a sizable bullish candle with a long lower shadow on the daily chart, highlighting strong buying interest at lower levels, Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "The immediate support is placed in the 51,100–51,000 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its weakness towards 50,500, followed by 50,000 in the short term. On the upside, the zone of 52,000–52,100 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance."

Bank Nifty formed a bullish candlestick pattern as buying demand emerged from the key psychological level of 50,000 after a gap down opening. Volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, amid rising geopolitical tensions and higher crude oil prices, which continue to weigh on overall market sentiment, said Bajaj Broking.

"Nifty Bank needs to establish a sustained pattern of higher highs and higher lows in the daily chart for any meaningful pause in the ongoing downtrend, along with a close above recent high of 54,150. On the downside, weakness below the psychological 50,000 levels will signal extension of the decline towards 49,200-49,000 levels in the coming sessions," it said.