FIFA World Cup 2026: The mathematician behind 3 correct predictions has picked a winner...

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has begun, bringing together 48 teams and 104 matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico. While fans and pundits debate the likely winner, a German mathematician who accurately predicted the champions of the last three editions has tipped the Netherlands to lift the trophy this year.

Joachim Klement, a German mathematician and investment strategist, has correctly forecast the winners of the previous three World Cups — Germany in 2014, France in 2018 and Argentina in 2022. His latest model predicts that the Netherlands will finally capture their first-ever World Cup title.

Klement initially developed the model to illustrate the challenges of predicting the outcome of a football tournament. However, after correctly forecasting Germany's triumph in Brazil in 2014, he was left surprised.

“The first time I was horrified when Germany became world champions in Brazil, also because all the experts had pointed out that no European team had ever won a World Cup in South America,” he told German publication Der Spiegel.

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His model incorporates several variables, including a country's population size, the social importance of football, FIFA world rankings, GDP per capita — which he says influences sports infrastructure — and a component of chance.

Using the algorithm, Klement predicts that the Netherlands will defeat Spain in the semifinals before overcoming Portugal in the final. According to his projections, Portugal will reach the championship match after eliminating England in the other semifinal.

Despite his impressive track record, Klement insists that his predictions should not be taken too seriously and warns fans against placing bets based solely on his calculations.

“It's completely irrational,” he said. “It's like playing the lottery. I always say that if anyone places a bet based on my prediction of who will be the next world champion, they're beyond help.”

He compared the process to repeatedly tossing a coin, noting that even a sequence of correct outcomes does not guarantee future success.

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“It's like tossing a coin. You might predict that the coin will land on heads four times in a row rather than tails, and that might well happen. But that doesn't guarantee it will happen again next time,” he added.

For the Netherlands, a World Cup triumph in 2026 would be historic. The Dutch national team has reached the final on three occasions — in 1974, 1978 and 2010 — but has never managed to win the tournament, earning the unwanted distinction of being the most successful nation without a World Cup title.

Managed by Ronald Koeman, the Netherlands begin their World Cup campaign against Japan on June 14. They are placed in Group F alongside Sweden and Tunisia.

As the world's biggest sporting event unfolds over the coming weeks, Klement's prediction adds another intriguing storyline to a tournament already packed with anticipation and uncertainty.

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