Mega IPOs: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic are headed for the market; is there room for anyone else?

Elon Musk’s SpaceX has set the stage for what could become the largest IPO in history, while raising fresh concerns that a handful of mega listings could overwhelm an already fragile market recovery.

The rocket and satellite company has confidentially filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and is seeking a valuation of about $1.75 trillion, with plans to raise as much as $75 billion. If successful, the deal would eclipse Saudi Aramco’s record $29 billion listing and anchor what PitchBook, a market research firm, describes as a defining moment for venture capital.

But that moment may come at a cost.

A comeback story at risk

The 2026 IPO market was expected to build on 2025’s recovery, but activity has been muted so far, with few companies filing and no major listings in the first two months, according to PitchBook.

Instead of a broad rebound, the market is being dominated by three giants, SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic, whose potential IPOs could reshape liquidity.

 

 

PitchBook estimates that SpaceX alone could raise between $50 billion and $75 billion, while OpenAI and Anthropic, which also plan to list by later this year, could add another $50 billion combined, “roughly as much as was raised by US VC-backed company IPOs over the past decade.”

That concentration of capital risks leaving little room for smaller listings, according to PitchBook.

The trillion-dollar distortion

SpaceX’s recent merger with xAI values it at about $1.25 trillion, while OpenAI and Anthropic are pegged at roughly $840 billion and $330 billion, respectively. 

PitchBook notes that if all three go public, “they would likely be the three largest VC-backed IPOs ever and could conceivably create more value than all VC-backed IPOs since 2000 have collectively.” 

Such outsized deals could stretch underwriting capacity and absorb public market capital, limiting investor appetite for the broader pipeline. The report warns that “the potential lack of capital for less unique offerings should concern VCs.” 

Liquidity crunch meets mega exits

The timing is critical. Venture capital has been stuck in what PitchBook calls an “extended liquidity drought,” driven by weak IPO activity, sluggish mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and capital locked in late-stage private companies. 

While mega IPOs promise a windfall, unlocking billions for early investors, they may also concentrate returns among a narrow set of stakeholders, particularly corporates and large funds.

For the broader market, the implications are less clear. “The attention that these mega IPOs take from the market could push a broadly open IPO window into 2027,” the report says, extending already delayed liquidity timelines. 

A fragile pipeline

The weakness of the current pipeline underscores the risk. Beyond a handful of names such as Discord, Cerebras and Kraken, now reportedly pausing its listing, there is little evidence of a sustained IPO wave.

Recent performance hasn’t helped. In 2025, 17 unicorns went public, but 14 did so at valuations below their private peaks, and many have traded lower since listing. 

That backdrop raises the stakes for SpaceX and its peers.

Catalyst or choke point

PitchBook frames the moment as a fork in the road. Strong listings could “pull more companies into IPOs, unlocking billions of returns for investors,” while also validating AI as the core driver of venture capital. 

But a weaker reception could have the opposite effect.

If these mega IPOs absorb capital or stumble post-listing, as Alibaba, Meta and Uber did in their early months, the result could be a freeze in new listings and a further delay in liquidity for the broader market.

“A worst-case scenario… would be poor reception by the public markets,” the report notes, warning that volatility or weak demand could “delay or completely push out potential listings for VC-backed firms.” 

The IPO that decides the cycle

For now, much hinges on SpaceX. PitchBook suggests that meaningful IPO activity may not resume until the second half of 2026, possibly after SpaceX sets the tone. 

"These mega IPOs could serve as catalysts, encouraging more companies to go public…Conversely...liquidity for investors could be delayed until 2027 or later,” the report said.
 
With SpaceX now moving toward a listing, the IPO market may finally be getting its long-awaited spark. But whether that spark ignites a broader recovery or consumes the rest of the pipeline will depend on how investors absorb what could be the biggest offerings in history.