The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will release India's GDP growth numbers for the July-September quarter today at 5:30 PM. Most of the economic indicators suggest that the Indian economy is on recovery after it touched the lowest -in last 13 quarters- of 5.7 for the period of April-June. While we have to wait for the real numbers from CSO, some financial institutions have given their forecasts, keeping GDP growth range from 5.9 to 7.1.
Here's what various poll and research data predict for July-September GDP results
SBI Research data showed 6 per cent growth in the second quarter. The report said: "In the first quarter GDP grew at 5.7 per cent,causing a lot of heartburn, but we strongly believe that the second quarter growth is likely to trend higher and might be in the lower end of 6-6.5 per cent band with an upward bias." The report further said that IIP growth for September may likely be over 5 per cent as mining and electricity growth is also to be significantly better as state electricity boards have purchased power because of festive demand.
Ficci's economic outlook survey showed that India's GDP growth may improve to 6.2 per cent in the second quarter and further rise to 6.7 per cent in the third quarter. The survey was conducted in October 2017. Economists who participated in the survey expect that the wholesale price inflation for current fiscal year is likely to be around 2.8 per cent and retail inflation at 3.4 per cent. The survey report also projects the budgetary fiscal deficit for the current year to be slightly higher at 3.3 per cent as against the government's target of 3.2 per cent.
According to Reuters, India's economic growth may rebound to 6.4 per cent in the second quarter. Reuters' report is based on a poll of economists. The forecasts ranged from 5.9 per cent to 6.8 per cent. The poll suggests that GVA growth estimate is likely to increase from 5.6 per cent to 6.2 per cent. In the poll, none of the 52 economists expect growth to further come down from 5.7 per cent while few expect a return to growth rates above eight per cent.
Bloomberg poll of 46 economists says that India's gross value added (GVA) growth in the July-September is likely to grow at 6.2 per cent from a three-year low of 5.6 percent in the previous quarter. "GVA growth has become a preferred measure of economic growth as it strips out the impact of indirect taxes and subsidies," the poll said. The country's gross domestic product, a more commonly used measure, is expected to grow at 6.4 percent during the quarter, compared to 5.7 percent in the June-ended quarter, it added.
NITI Aayog Vice-Chairman Rajiv Kumar
According to NITI Aayog vice-chairman Rajiv Kumar, Indian economy during July-September period is likely to grow at 6.2 to 6.3 per cent. He expects GDP growth in second-half of the current fiscal year to be 7.5 per cent. In an interview to Financial Express, Rajiv Kumar said: "I am confident that in the July-September quarter, economy will grow by 7-7.5 per cent. Destocking, which was in anticipation of GST rollout has completed and now, there is more clarity on the new tax regime."