BT Explainer: What led to BJP’s colossal victory over Congress in Assam?

Assam Election Results 2026: Days before the Congress collapsed in the state elections, all the telltale signs were there. The top rung of the grand old party suffered a series of high-profile exits. Come election results day, the scenes turned from bad to worse. 

At the time of writing this copy, Rahul Gandhi’s trusted lieutenant and face of Congress in Assam, Gaurav Gogoi had lost from his own constituency – the same one from where he won the Lok Sabha election in 2025 with a mammoth margin of 1,44,393 votes. Naturally, it was believed that the odds were, once again, going to be in his favour.

But Gogoi had faced off with veteran Hitendra Nath Goswami, a five time MLA. The campaign was respectful and there was next to no mud-slinging. In fact, during the day of the polls, Goswami and Gogoi shared a warm cuppa and a light-hearted exchange.

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Both had reasons to assume victory – Goswami, a veteran, was powered by the juggernaut of the BJP. Gogoi, on the other hand, had the support of the younger voters and the alliance of two more Gogois – Akhil Gogoi, founder of the Raijor Dal, and Lurinjyoti Gogoi, founder of the Assam Jatiya Parishad. 

The three together aimed to oust Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. Sarma was seen as an outsider in Upper Assam, since he hailed from Lower Assam, and a Brahmin amid the Ahom society. The trio aimed to forge alliances within the Ahom community and rake up older loyalties to stop Sarma from making inroads into the other side of the Brahmaputra. 

However, as things stand now, Gaurav and Lurinjyoti, did not succeed in their own background. Gaurav lost Jorhat, and Lurinjyoti lost from Khowang. Akhil Gogoi continued to lead from Sibsagar. 

Not only the Congress, but the opposition was in disarray too. 

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The delimitation exercise also seems to have worked in Himanta’s favour and against Gaurav’s. While Gaurav and co had banked on the Ahom community to rally behind them, the delimitation exercise, and the resultant population shifts, played a big factor in this. It pressed down the influence of the Ahom community, relegating Congress to only a few constituencies. 

Himanta’s rhetoric against the Miya Muslims seemed to have caught on too. Throughout the campaign, Himanta had made remarks about removing Miya Muslims, evicting them or at least troubling them.  The three Gogois had called for a more inclusive state. 

The chief minister also announced a list of benefits for women, including distribution of mustard oil at subsidised rates, two free LPG cylinders a year, monthly assistance of Rs 3,000 under the Orunodoi scheme. The Mukhyamantri Mahila Udyamita Abhiyaan as well as the Orunodoi schemes targeted around 40 lakh women, which appears to have benefited Sarma. 

The BJP government also hiked the wage of tea garden workers by Rs 30, gave land pattas to permanent garden workers, and transferred Rs 5,000 one-time grant. It also announced a monthly aid scheme for male students from low-income families pursuing UG and PG.

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