60% of thermal plants have less than a week of coal. Should you worry?

Coal inventories at the country’s 190 thermal power plants have fallen to an average of seven days, the lowest level since November 2023, as power demand peaked this month, according to the National Coal Portal.

About 60% of thermal power plants have coal stocks sufficient for fewer than seven days. In view of the critical stock levels, the Ministry of Coal has asked coal public sector undertakings, including Coal India Limited and Singareni Collieries Company, to increase supplies to thermal plants.

The Central Electricity Authority classifies coal stocks at power plants as critical when they fall 25% below the normative level. Given the current inventory position, a sustained increase in coal dispatches will be essential to rebuild stocks towards the historical average of 16-18 days.

Coal supplies to thermal power plants in the northern and western regions have remained low as demand has risen amid deficient monsoon rainfall in several areas. Average coal stocks at power plants stood at nine days in August before falling further to seven days this month, according to daily data from the National Coal Portal dashboard.

Last week, the government invoked emergency provisions under Section 11 of the Electricity Act, directing captive power plants with a capacity of more than 50 MW to operate at their maximum available capacity from October to December to help meet electricity demand. Peak power demand this month reached 271 GW, the highest level recorded for the month.

The sharp depletion in coal stocks was concentrated at plants dependent on domestic coal, underscoring the difficulty of replenishing inventories in time amid elevated power demand and coal consumption.

Weak monsoon

Between April and August, coal consumption by thermal power plants rose 8% year-on-year to 395 MT, driven by a 9.5% increase in power demand after an abnormally hot summer and a below-normal southwest monsoon, according to Crisil Intelligence.

Cumulative rainfall between June and August was 13% below the long-period average. Key downside risks include adverse weather that could further disrupt mining and coal evacuation, as well as delays in improving rail availability and rake-loading capacity.

Between April and August, rake loading rose by only about 5% and coal receipts by 3%, even as coal consumption surged. Consequently, the incremental increase in evacuation was insufficient to replenish inventories at power plants. To ease the situation, Coal India allowed power plants with fuel supply agreements to lift additional coal by road, alongside rail transport, from September 7, 2026.

Power demand is estimated at 860-870 billion units, while coal-based generation is likely to retain its dominant 65-70% share of India’s electricity mix. With miners holding adequate inventories and evacuation logistics improving, the higher dispatch requirement should be met comfortably.