HDFC Bank shares: Market bets on next MD and CEO; Bharucha, Jimmy Tata, Hitendra Dave

As HDFC Bank's MD and CEO Sashidhar Jagdishan opted not to seek reappointment, the Street is abuzz with a couple of names that could take over as the top executive at India's largest private lender. Kaizad Bharucha is believed to be the leading internal candidate, analysts said.

In a note, foreign brokerage Nomura said the key question is not just who replaces Jagdishan, but what profile the bank wants. The next CEO will need to accelerate growth, improve deposit mobilisation/returns, extract merger synergies and, importantly, rebuild confidence around governance and senior-management stability, Nomura said.

It said Bharucha’s tenure as a whole-time-director (WTD) since 2014 would give him roughly 2.5 years before reaching the RBI’s 15-year limit in 2029, if he is appointed now. On the external side, it named K Balasubramanian, CEO of Citi India (unlisted) and former HDFC Bank corporate banker, and Hitendra Dave, CEO of HSBC India (unlisted), as potential candidates.

"The eventual choice therefore appears to be between continuity through the existing HDFC leadership bench and a broader leadership reset through an external appointment," it said.

Read more: HDFC Bank CEO exit: How share price may react to Sashidhar Jagdishan's decision 

MOFSL noted that HDFC Bank's share price has significantly underperformed its peers over the last few years, with a tough adjustment period after the merger and recent concerns about governance after the sudden resignation of chairman, among other issues mentioned above. The stock price has declined 25 per cent in the past one year and 8 per cent in the past five years.

"The overhaul in its leadership team will help to address the overhang and aid investor sentiment. We expect the bank’s operating performance to improve from 2HFY27 onward as we project earnings to grow in mid-teens in FY28E after sluggish trends over FY24-27E," it said.

This brokerage said Bharucha, the Deputy MD, has been with the bank for 26 years and has been an ED of the bank since 2014. He has managed diverse portfolios across the bank over this long stint and thus remains a prime candidate to succeed Jagdishan.

"However, given the cap of 15 years for board membership of a bank, it may restrict him to have a full three-year tenure and may need exceptional approval from the RBI. The current ED, Mr  V. Srinivasa Rangan, ex-CFO of HDFC Ltd, has already attained the age of 66 years, which may again limit his tenure as MD given a maximum age cap of 70 years," MOFSL said.

MOFSL said Jimmy Tata, chief credit officer, who has been associated with the bank for more than 30 years, could also be a potential candidate. "Moreover, there is a high likelihood that the board will evaluate external candidates for the role; however, given limited time, the bank will need to fast-track the process," MOFSL said.

Nuvama Institutional Equities sees Bharucha as top candidate as he could enable faster normalisation while giving the board time to identify and groom a long-term successor through a designate MD/DMD role, making this "the more pragmatic outcome."

Ashika Institutional Equities is also betting on Bharucha's appointment as MD and CEO.

"While external candidates may be considered for the role of MD & CEO, amongst internal candidates, its Deputy MD, Kaizad Bharucha has emerged as a frontrunner for the role," it said.