Stock market today: Gift Nifty up 110 points; key levels for Nifty, Sensex & Nifty Bank

Nifty futures on the NSE International Exchange were 109.30 points, or 0.44 per cent, down at 24,694, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Asian shares rallied on Thursday to a tentative recovery in risk ​appetite. KOSPI zoomed nearly 12 per cent while Nikkei and Hang Seng jumped 2-3 per cent each.

With sentiment turning cautious, participants may prefer a selective approach while monitoring incoming global cues. Going ahead, markets are likely to be guided by developments in the West Asia conflict, movements in global crude oil prices, and evolving global risk sentiment, monitored for further directional cues, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

US stocks closed up on Wednesday amid reports that Iran had signaled signs for talks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 238.14 ​points, or 0.49 per cent, to 48,739.41; the S&P 500 gained 52.87 points, or 0.78 per cent, to 6,869.50 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 290.79 points, or 1.29 per cent, to ​22,807.48.

Concerns about energy supply continued to drive up oil prices. US crude rose 3.01 per cent to $76.91 a barrel and Brent rose to $83.43 per barrel, up 2.49 per cent on ​the day. Spot gold rose 0.84 per cent ​to $5,178.42 an ounce. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.78 per cent to $72,774.53 while ether declined 0.94 per cent to $2,130.43.

The dollar halted its blistering rally on Thursday, providing some reprieve ​to the battered euro, as investors clung on to fragile assumptions that the war in the Middle East might not last as ‌long as initially expected. The dollar further ​eased from an over three-month high hit earlier this week and stood at 98.82 against a basket of currencies.

"Investor's sentiment remained fragile amid weak global signals, elevated crude oil prices and lingering uncertainty around geopolitical developments," said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. Participants should remain cautious, keep position sizes light and focus on disciplined trade management amid heightened volatility and weak global cues, he adds.

Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net sellers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 8,752.65 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 12,068.17 crore on a net-net basis.
 

Nifty50 & Sensex outlook

The market hovered between the 24,300/78,500 to 24,600/79,500 range, after a gap-down open. The short-term outlook is weak but oversold. For traders, 24,300/78,500 would act as a key support zone. If the market sustains above this level, the immediate resistance would be at 24,600/79,500, said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities.

"Above 24,600/79,500, it could move up to 24,800-25,000/80,000-80,500. Conversely, a decline below 24,300/78,500 could change the sentiment. Below this, the market could slip to 24,100-24,000/78,000-77,800. The current market texture is extremely volatile and is expected to remain volatile in the near future," he said.

The underlying trend of Nifty remains weak amidst global geo-political tension. Nifty is sliding down to an important support zone of around 24,300-24,100, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. "There is a higher possibility of reasonable upside bounce from the lows in the near term. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,600."

Until volatility cools off, traders are advised to avoid aggressive positioning, as sharp and unpredictable swings may persist. Given the current backdrop, closely monitoring geopolitical developments remains essential, as they are likely to dictate near-term market direction, said Rajesh Bhosale, Technical Analyst at Angel One.
 

Nifty Bank outlook

For Nifty Bank, the immediate support is placed in the 58,200–58,100 zone. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in Nifty Bank extending its weakness towards 57,700, followed by 57,300 in the short term, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "On the upside, the zone of 59,200–59,300 zone is likely to act as an immediate resistance."

The trend remains weak for Nifty Bank and a sell-on-rise strategy appears favorable in the short term, said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities. "The RSI is in a bearish crossover and trending lower, indicating weak momentum. On the lower end, the index may drift towards 58,000–57,500. On the higher side, resistance is placed at 59,500."

Bank Nifty began the session on a weak note but recovered, suggesting selective buying interest at lower levels, said Hitesh Tailor, Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking. "From a technical perspective, resistance is seen between 59,000 and 59,100, whereas support is placed in the 58,400–58,500 zone. The RSI reading of 48.11 points to neutral momentum with a slight bearish bias."