‘Supercharging our weather..’: WMO says coming months will see exceptionally high temperatures

The world is expected to face exceptionally high temperatures for the rest of this year and into early 2027 due to a strengthening El Niño, which is likely to add 0.1-0.2 degrees Celsius to global temperatures, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Monday.

In its State of the Climate report released at the start of the COP31 climate summit in Turkey, the UN agency noted that 2026 is on track to be one of the warmest years on record. Global temperatures from January to September were 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

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WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said, "We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. El Niño and indeed the state of the global climate in 2026 gives new meaning to the phrase ‘off the charts’." The El Niño phenomenon, which affects temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide, is expected to continue until February.

The WMO forecasts temperature anomalies of up to 3.7 degrees Celsius in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific, compared with 0.2 degrees Celsius in March. Global temperatures are expected to exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in 2026, according to data from Copernicus. This threshold was already crossed in 2024, the hottest year on record.

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The UN projects that global temperatures could rise by 1.8 degrees Celsius this century in a best-case scenario, which requires significant reductions in man-made greenhouse gas emissions beyond current commitments. Even if countries meet their existing pledges, warming of 2.6 degrees Celsius is likely.

The WMO report also highlighted accelerating changes in the oceans. Sea levels rose by an average of 3.9 millimetres annually between 2017 and 2026, compared with 2.4 millimetres between 1993 and 2002. Ocean heat continued to increase this year, while Arctic sea ice recorded its lowest or second-lowest maximum extent in March.

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Extreme weather affected renewable energy production in 2025. Europe saw above-average solar power generation but below-average wind output. Central and southern Africa experienced below-average rainfall affecting hydropower and higher electricity demand.

The report stated that 136 countries had early-warning systems in 2025, up from 56 a decade earlier, bringing the world closer to the UN target of universal coverage by the end of 2027.