62% of fintech funding went to just 10 deals: Is the sector entering a winner-takes-most phase?

Global fintech investment rebounded strongly in the first half of 2026, but the recovery was far from broad-based. Capital is increasingly concentrating in a small number of large, established companies and strategic transactions, raising questions over whether the fintech market is moving towards a winner-takes-most phase.

According to KPMG’s Pulse of Fintech H1 2026, global fintech investment across venture capital, private equity and M&A rose to $103.1 billion in H1 2026, from $72.2 billion in H2 2025. However, the number of deals fell to 2,100 from 2,500, indicating that the rise in funding was driven by deal size rather than a broad expansion in activity.

Top 10 deals absorb 62% of fintech investment

The concentration was particularly stark at the top end. The 10 largest fintech transactions accounted for $64 billion, or 62% of total investment during the six months. The two biggest transactions were Global Payments’ $24.3 billion acquisition of Worldpay and FIS’ $13.5 billion acquisition of Global Payments’ Issuer Solutions business, also known as Total System Services.

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The remaining top deals also skewed towards established businesses and strategic transactions. Clearwater Analytics attracted an $8.4 billion buyout, while OneStream was taken private in a $6.4 billion deal. Brex raised $5.15 billion through an M&A transaction. Other notable deals included Polymarket’s $1.6 billion Series D and Kalshi’s $1.2 billion Series F.

Investors prioritise scale and proven business models

KPMG said the strong deal value alongside softer activity reflected investors’ preference for mature fintechs, market leaders and companies with proven business models. M&A accounted for the largest share of investment at $67.9 billion across 394 deals, with cross-border transactions contributing $20.2 billion.

The shift is also visible in payments, which attracted $44.2 billion in H1 2026. Yet payments deal volume fell to just 168 transactions, compared with 577 during the whole of 2025. Investors are increasingly favouring scaled, profitable and infrastructure-focused businesses rather than early-stage speculative bets.

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Smaller fintechs still find room for capital

This does not mean smaller fintechs have been shut out completely. Early-stage investment reached $9.8 billion in H1 2026, with investors continuing to back startups in digital assets, data management, analytics, core infrastructure and AI. Many of these businesses are AI-native.

Still, the funding landscape is becoming more selective. KPMG expects consolidation to intensify, particularly in payments, as stronger players expand their capabilities and private equity looks for opportunities to consolidate weaker businesses. At the same time, AI and infrastructure are expected to remain major investment priorities.

The message for fintech founders is increasingly clear: access to capital is returning, but investors are demanding scale, defensible technology, proven economics and a clear path to value creation and long-term growth.

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