Monsoon to weaken in south, west in coming days; crop sowing to slow down

If you look out of the window today, the flooded streets and the inundated corners might paint the incorrect picture. Large parts of the country, including Delhi and Mumbai, have been battered by heavy rains and relentless downpours. 

However, the bigger picture is quite different: the monsoon this year is likely to be below-average. 

The below-average rainfall, especially in the western and southern regions, are expected to slow down the sowing activity. There is expected to be below-average rainfall in the coming fortnight after rain lashed the west coast this week. This would potentially slow down the sowing of cotton, soybeans and ‌corn.

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The southwest monsoon is expected to enter a break over the next fortnight, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning that several states are likely to receive below-average rainfall due to unfavourable weather conditions.

"The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is unlikely to be favourable over the next fortnight and the chances of any low-pressure system developing during this period are also low," SD Sanap, a scientist with the IMD, told Reuters.

"As a result, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala are likely to receive below-average rainfall."

The MJO is an eastward-moving band of clouds, rain and winds that circles the tropics every 30 to 60 days. It is a key driver of short-term monsoon activity, with its active phase boosting rainfall and its suppressed phase often bringing dry spells.

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The monsoon delivers about 70% of India's annual rainfall, replenishing critical water sources in the nearly $4 trillion economy. Nearly half of the country's farmland lacks irrigation, while about half the population depends on agriculture for its livelihood.

India received 39.8% below-average rainfall in June, and the IMD has also forecast below-average rainfall for July. Heavy showers during the first eight days of July, particularly along the west coast, reduced the nationwide rainfall deficit to 15.2%. However, a weather department official said the deficit is expected to widen again as the monsoon enters a break.

The weak June rainfall has slowed the sowing of summer crops, including rice, cotton, corn and soybeans. As of July 5, farmers had planted 35 million hectares (86.5 million acres), down 21% from the same period last year, according to farm ministry data.

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Farm Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said farmers have been advised to cultivate short-duration and low-water-intensive crops such as corn, pearl millet and green gram to minimise the impact of delayed rainfall.

A Mumbai-based dealer with a global trading house said farmers in central, western and southern India are likely to begin sowing in rainfed areas following the recent showers. However, if the expected dry spell follows immediately, it could adversely affect crop growth.