DMart, Nestle top 2 stock picks by Axis Securities; check targets | Trent, HUL, Dabur, V-Mart – buy, sell or hold?

As tensions between the US and Iran escalate, the consumption sector is feeling the heat with rising oil prices and tightening LPG availability now spilling over into everyday consumption. However, Axis Securities has identified two top stock picks: Nestle India Ltd and Avenue Supermarts Ltd (DMart).

According to a recent sector update by Axis Securities, this geopolitical tension is sparking broad-based inflation across input costs. The brokerage warned that the heavy reliance on crude derivatives for raw materials, packaging, and logistics is expected to compress margins, delay demand recovery, and disrupt supply chains. 

Nestle India: With a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 1,500, the FMCG giant remains a sturdy bet. The brokerage notes that the company faces a ‘mild’ impact from the crisis because of its lower crude linkage and strong pricing power cushions margins.

DMart: Axis has given a ‘Buy’ rating and a target price of Rs 4,450. The retail operator is considered the best-positioned in Indian retail for an inflationary environment, giving it a ‘mild’ impact profile.

“Owns most stores (no rental pressure). The EDLP model could attract trade-down shoppers from premium formats. Continued expansion — 481 stores as of Mar’26. Inflation-era beneficiary,” the brokerage said.

Paint and QSR

The paint sector is currently staring down the barrel of high crude sensitivity. Axis pointed out that this industry is the most vulnerable, as around 40-60% of input costs are tied directly to crude derivatives.

Asian Paints Ltd: The brokerage slapped with a ‘highly negative’ impact outlook and a ‘Hold’ rating (target price: Rs 2,700), 

Meanwhile, the Quick Service Restaurant (QSR) sector is facing a messy dual shock of cost inflation and operational disruptions. Axis said that QSRs have a massive 60-65% dependence on LPG for cooking, making supply shortages a massive operational hurdle.

Westlife Foodworld Ltd: Despite this, Westlife has a ‘Buy’ call, with a target of Rs 600 with only a 'mild' anticipated impact. Axis attributed this to having a better supply chain and relatively resilient operations.

FMCG

For fast-moving consumer goods, the brokerage noted that tthe crude crisis isn't just about fuel; it's about the packaging that wraps everyday items. With key materials like PET and HDPE inflating significantly, Axis Securities predicts a 100-200 bps near-term margin compression for the sector. 

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL): Axis has a ‘Hold’ rating on the stock with a target of Rs 2,540, while Dabur India Ltd shares has a ‘Buy’ rating (target: Rs 596). “Hindustan Unilever and Dabur India face margin pressure,” Axis said.

Retail

Finally, for broader retail space Axis said the “sector is witnessing an inflation-led demand slowdown, as higher fuel and product prices compress consumer purchasing power.”

Trent Ltd: Carrying a ‘Buy’ rating (target price: Rs 4,430), brokerage expects a ‘moderately negative’ impact on the company. Because synthetic fabrics like polyester are derived from crude, the apparel maker faces severe cost headwinds, though its value brand Zudio offers a partial demand buffer, it added.

V-Mart Retail: Also has a ‘Buy’ rating twitch a target price of Rs 900.