Earnings expectations
Emkay Global is expecting Infosys to lower its constant currency (CC) revenue growth guidance to 1.5–2.5 per cent YoY from 1.5-3 per cent, taking the mid-point 25 basis points lower to 2 per cent, excluding Versent acquisition. Infosys is seen retaining its EBIT margin guidance of 20-22 per cent.
While suggesting 'Buy' and a target of Rs 1,300, Emkay sees Q2 net profit for Infosys rising 9 per cent YoY to Rs 8,026.70 crore on 10.9 per cent YoY rise in sales at Rs 49,323 crore.
"We expect 1.5 per cent QoQ dollar revenue growth after factoring in 50bps contribution from Optimum acquisition and 20bps cross-currency headwinds. EBIT margin is expected to expand by 50bps sequentially," Emkay said.
Kotak Institutional Equities, which sees Infosys Q2 profit rising 4.4 per cent YoY to Rs 7,689 crore, anticipated organic CC revenue growth of 1.1 per cent. About 50 bps of growth is due to the reversal of a headwind seen in the previous quarter, Kotak said.
The Underlying organic growth remains modest, reflecting AI-led deflation and a weak demand environment.
"The Optimum Healthcare acquisition will contribute 50 bps through a full-quarter consolidation. We expect stable margins. There are several moving parts, with a 50 bps headwind from the swing in provision for post-sales client support offset by the absence of the 50 bps revenue reversal headwind seen in the previous quarter. Benefits from rupee depreciation are likely to be offset by weaker revenue growth," Kotak said.
What to watch?
HDFC Institutional Equities, which sees Infosys deal wins in $2-3 billion range, said the management commentary on demand outlook, furlough intensity, 2027 client budgets, AI deflationary impact and large-deal conversion will be closely monitored.
Margin guidance, it said, is expected to remain stable, supported by currency tailwind, staggered wage hikes, and higher utilization. This brokerage sees Infosys' Q2 profit at Rs 8,038 crore and sales at Rs 49,090 crore. It suggested a target of Rs 1,250.
Target prices
Ahead of its earnings, Infosys has a consensus 12-monh target of Rs 1,186, which suggested limited upside potential over Thursday's trading price of Rs 1,156.