Saudi oil shipments hit a 2026 low: Why the kingdom’s escape routes are running out of room

Saudi Arabia is rapidly redrawing its oil-export map. After the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, the kingdom shifted crude towards its Red Sea terminal at Yanbu. Now, growing Houthi threats along the Red Sea are forcing another pivot — back towards Gulf terminals and alternative routes through Egypt.

The squeeze is visible in export flows.

Market commentator The Kobeissi Letter said Saudi Arabia’s combined Persian Gulf and Red Sea crude exports averaged just 3.23 million barrels per day in the first 23 days of August, putting the kingdom on track for its lowest monthly level since the start of the Iran war. The previous low was 3.65 million bpd in May.

From Hormuz to Yanbu 

The Strait of Hormuz had historically carried more than 6 million barrels per day of Saudi crude. When tensions with Iran escalated in March, Saudi Aramco quickly turned to its 746-mile East-West Pipeline, moving crude from eastern oilfields to Yanbu on the Red Sea.

Flows through the pipeline surged to about 4.4 million bpd, nearing 5 million bpd by the end of March. With a nominal capacity of 7 million bpd, it became Saudi Arabia’s key route around Hormuz.

But the workaround exposed Riyadh to another vulnerability: the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb.

Yanbu comes under pressure 

The Houthis warned last month that they could target shipping linked to Saudi Arabia, prompting exporters to reduce reliance on Yanbu.

The shift is already visible at Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest export terminal on the Persian Gulf. According to The Kobeissi Letter, around 7 million barrels of shipping capacity were loaded there on a single Tuesday, highlighting the renewed importance of the Gulf route.

Saudi Arabia is therefore moving crude in multiple directions at once — through Gulf terminals, Yanbu and alternative routes — depending on which corridor is safest and available.

Egypt offers another escape route 

The SUMED pipeline through Egypt has also become increasingly important. Saudi crude can move from the Red Sea to Egypt’s Ain Sokhna terminal, travel through SUMED and reach the Mediterranean without passing through the Bab el-Mandeb.

SUMED flows have surged to about 1.9 million bpd in August, bringing the system close to operational limits and leaving less room for another major increase.

That matters because Saudi Arabia produces roughly one in every 10 barrels of crude consumed globally. Its ability to reroute exports is therefore critical not only for Riyadh but for global energy markets.

Asia faces longer journeys 

Asian refiners are among the biggest losers from the disruption.

Tankers that previously travelled through the Red Sea and Indian Ocean may now have to take longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope. The detour can add more than 30 days to delivery schedules, tying up tankers and increasing freight and fuel costs.

Japan, South Korea and China have significant strategic petroleum reserves, providing some protection against delayed supplies. But reserves can only cushion a prolonged disruption; they cannot replace reliable shipping routes indefinitely.

Saudi Arabia’s logistical chess game 

Saudi Arabia has spent years building redundancy into its oil infrastructure. Pipelines, multiple export terminals and access to both the Persian Gulf and Red Sea give Aramco more flexibility than most producers.

But the current crisis is testing the limits of that advantage. Riyadh can bypass one chokepoint. It becomes far harder when Hormuz is disrupted, the Red Sea is threatened and alternative pipelines are nearing capacity at the same time.