Trump-proof stocks? Winners & losers of Trump tariffs; do you own any?

Uncertainty is the only certainty, as the US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs across trading partners, sending global markets into steep correction mode. IIFL Securities suspects that tariff calculations, exemptions and suspensions, retaliations and legal challenges to the new tariffs, could cause uncertainty that may last for several months.

Hopes of Bilateral Trade Agreements (BTAs) with the US could, though,  keep the hopes of many countries alive. it said. Net-net, it believes IT sector is likely to suffer, and its de-rating will continue. Similar is the case with Tata Motors in the auto sector, the broking firm said.   

"On the other hand, textiles (Gokaldas, 85 per cent revenue from US), EMS (Dixon Technologies Ltd) could be two sectors with improved outlook. We otherwise continue liking Hospitals (Apollo, KIMS), India focused pharma (Torrent, JB Chemicals), CIFC, Power Grid, JK Lakshmi Cement, Cummins, Page Industries, and OMCs," IIFL Securities said.

Among the gainers, IIFL said textile & apparel sector would be beneficiary as higher reciprocal tariffs on other major exporters favour India. A potential order shift to India may offset US demand slowdown, it said. 

In the consumer electricals & EMS segment, tariffs on cables & wires are lower than competitors, hence a net positive. The EMS space, IIFL Securities said, may benefit from a longer-term perspective, amid 8-10 per cent duty differential and cost arbitrage against key competing geographies.

"India competes with Vietnam & Mexico for PCB/ PCBA, and US customers are better off sourcing from India. Local manufacturing may not be a material delta as US will be more expensive and China is likely to not be competitive
with a cumulative 54 per cent tariff. Neutral to positive for Avalon, Kaynes, Syrma," IIFL said.

It said smartphone assembly is largely undertaken in China & India. Dixon manufactures smartphones for Motorola, part of which are exported to the US. Higher duty on China makes India relatively better placed, hence a net positive, it said.

In the energy space, global LFP Battery prices could see a further decline as Chinese export capacity gets re-routed, IIFL Securities said. IIFL is positive for Acme Solar as it helps improve IRR of its FDRE portfolio. 

For now, tariffs on pharma have not been imposed. Sun Pharma, Lupin, Aurobindo and Cipla have high exposure to the US. 

In the chemicals, IIFL said the domestic consumption stories, such as fertilisers (Coromandel International and Chambal) and agrochemicals (Bayer CropScience and Rallis India), may outperform in the near term. 

In the building material space, IIFL said Kajaria and Somany do not have any meaningful exposure to exports, the Morbi cluster remains largely export-focused. A total of 8 per cent of total tile exports go to the US. A demand slump may lead to dumping in domestic market, impacting local sales. 

In laminates, 26 per cent of production gets exported. Greenlam Industries has a marketing subsidiary in US, which accounted for 6 per cent of the company's consolidated revenue in FY24.