Nifty, Sensex, Nifty Bank outlook for today: GIFT Nifty up nearly 90 points; key levels to watch

Indian equity benchmark indices may open higher, with caution, against the backdrop of the encouraging development—continued institutional buying despite market weakness. Global cues have also improved overnight. Wall Street rebounded after a three-session decline, supported by renewed buying in AI-related technology stocks. However, inflation concerns persist.

Markets may remain under pressure as concerns over rising crude oil prices, bond yields and dollar index keep investor sentiments cautious. Brent crude surged, following the escalation in the West Asian conflict and global bond yields surging to multi-year highs amid concerns over a US rate hike, adding to pressure on global equities, said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

GIFT Nifty, Asian markets & US stocks
GIFT Nifty Futures on the NSE International Exchange were 88.20 points, or 0.37 per cent, up at 24,088.50, hinting at a positive start for the domestic market on Thursday. Shares and bonds staged a relief rally in Asia on Thursday. KOSPI gained more than a per cent, while Hang Seng and Nikkei added a per cent each.

Wall Street advanced on Wednesday as investors searched for deals among stocks and sectors that might have been oversold amid recent risk-off ‌moves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 295.01 points, or 0.56 per cent, to 53,061.89, the S&P 500 gained 35.16 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 7,666.63 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 118.05 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 26,217.83.

Crude, US dollar, gold & more
US crude fell 0.3 per cent to $90.74 a barrel and Brent fell to $95.21 per barrel, down 0.44 per cent on the day amid West Asia developments. Spot gold added 0.32 per cent to $4,400.47 an ounce, while spot silver rose 0.51 per cent to $65.65 an ounce. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar eased 0.04 per cent to 99.56.  The yield on benchmark US 10-year notes fell to 4.784 per cent.

Investor sentiment deteriorated sharply after escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered a surge in crude oil prices and heightened global uncertainty, said Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking. "We reiterate our advice to maintain a cautious stance, keep position sizes light and focus on disciplined risk management, amid the rising volatility and global uncertainty."

FII-DII flows
Provisional data available with NSE suggest that FPIs turned net buyers of domestic stocks to the tune of Rs 6,688.37 crore on Wednesday. On the other hand, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned buyers of Indian equities to the tune of Rs 2,812.98 crore on a net-net basis.

Nifty50, Sensex & India VIX outlook
The broader outlook remains sideways with a cautious undertone, as the Sensex attempts to build a base near the lower levels after the sharp decline. Holding the 76,100–76,300 support zone will be crucial for sustaining the recovery, while a move above 76,800–77,000 could provide further strength, said Sachin Gupta, VP of Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking.

A small green candle was formed on the daily chart with minor lower shadow. The trend remains weak. The ongoing bearish pattern signal sell on rise opportunity on any pullback, said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities. Any bounce back from could find strong overhead resistance around 24,100-24,200. Further weakness below 23,800 could drag Nifty down to 23,600 in the near term."

The hammer formation needs confirmation through sustained strength in subsequent sessions before signalling a meaningful trend reversal. India VIX rose 3.60 per cent to 11.59, reflecting increased hedging activity and suggesting that volatility may remain elevated in the near term, said Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities.

Nifty Bank outlook
The immediate support for Nifty Bank is placed at 56,800-56,700 zone, which coincides with the 200-day EMA. Any sustainable move below this zone could result in it extending its weakness towards 56,400, followed by 56,000, said Sudeep Shah, Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities. "The immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 57,500-57,600 zone."

Nifty Bank formed a high wave candle with small real body and long shadows in either direction signaling consolidation. The broader consolidation range remains intact between 56,500 and 58,700. It may extend the consolidation and a breakout or breakdown will signal a directional momentum. Within the consolidation it is facing resistance at 58,000, said Pabitro Mukherjee, DVP of Research at Bajaj Broking.

"Nifty Bank sustaining above 58,000 will open upside towards 58,500-58,700. Failure to sustain above 58,000 will signal consolidation in the range 57,000-58,000 levels in the coming sessions On the lower side a breach below immediate support of 57,000 will signal extension of decline towards the key short-term support area of 56,500-56,200 levels being the confluence of the 52 weeks EMA," he said.